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Chapter 915 It¡¯s Actually Controlling the Probability

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    ?

    Chu Lihua laughed, "Haha, okay! As long as you can trust me. Do you know? There is a saying on the Internet: I used to study and buy funds by myself, and 200,000 became 150,000. Later, I finally found an expert.  Follow him. Then 150,000 became 50,000."

    ¡ª¡ª"Haha, I'm not stupid. I can buy whatever you buy. Experts often do not pay attention to reality, but look at problems from a theoretical perspective. At the theoretical level, they are indeed experts.  "

    Chu Lihua nodded, "Many things are not researched by experts. Just like the probability we just said, you can be called an expert only after studying in an industry for a long time.

    But this is not the scope of our discussion now, let's continue what we just said.

    Do you dare to take a bet with me, the bet is to flip a coin.  If the coin comes up heads, you lose and you have to give me 1000 yuan.  If the coin comes up tails, you win, and I will give you 1,500 yuan.  "-

    "No gambling."

    ¡ª¡ª"Hey! You are quite cooperative. If you want to bet, I will have nothing to say. Haha! For you, the mathematical expectation of this gamethat is, your average expected income is -1000x  ?12+1500x?12=250 yuan, which is expected to be a positive return, which is quite a bargain.

    But I think many people will reject this gamble, because after all, there is a risk of losing 1,000 yuan.

    But if it is said to bet 10,000 hands in a row, then it is estimated that no one is unwilling.  If you play one or two hands, you may lose money, but if you play ten thousand hands, all fluctuations will be smoothed out. It is a steady profit without loss, and the total income will be around 2.5 million yuan.

    But in life, no one will play such a game with us. What is the significance of this thought experiment?  Daniel Kahneman made a suggestion on this in his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow".

    It is true that no one bets you ten thousand times in a row, but you can consider the big and small probability choices in your life as a system to consider as a whole.  As long as you choose to bet every time you encounter a positive mathematical expectation, then in the long run, you must win.

    Of course, these choices have a premise, that is, even if you lose a certain bet, you can bear it.  But the point is this: whether it is a big thing or a small thing; betting on money or something else; no matter what form it is, you should consider them together.

    In this way, even if you fail this time, you can be like Ms. Coco and don't care at all.  What you care about is the principles and systems of your life.  "

    Liu Xingting was silent for a while and suddenly clapped his hands, "Chu Lihua, keep talking. I'm a little confused."

    Chu Lihua was happy from the bottom of her heart. Apart from the group of people in the Heart Eye Club, this was the first time anyone listened to what she said so attentively.

    ¡ª¡ª"I'll use the magnifying glass as an example, I think it's easier to understand.

    Suppose Xiao Wang is a young football player, and he was spotted by a sports school coach when he was in elementary school.  The coach told Xiao Wang's parents that this kid is one in a million football geniuses, as long as he is allowed to practice hard with me, he will definitely be at the level of the main force of the national team in the future, and I promise to let him play.

    Then, the family was very happy and agreed to Xiao Wang to play football.  After Xiao Wang arrived at the sports school, he found that the coach really paid special attention to him. During training, he often gave him small meals, and in life he also asked about his health.  Xiao Wang gradually felt that he was really a genius, maybe the hope of Chinese football lay in him!  Xiao Wang is very proud in his heart, and sometimes plays big names.

    But unfortunately!  Once during training, Xiao Wang was seriously injured. The doctor said that Xiao Wang would not be able to play football again.  Xiao Wang felt that the sky was falling!  The coach came to see Xiao Wang at home, and he was also very sad.

    So, may I ask, does the coach also feel that the sky is falling?

    Sorry, no.  It is impossible for the coach to pin all his hopes on Xiao Wang alone. In fact, he has several talented players like Xiao Wang in his hands.

    Then you say, no, the coach said that Xiao Wang is at the level of the main force of the national team. How can there be so many children at the level of the main force of the national team?  This is a matter of probability.

    If Xiao Wang has been training well to adulthood, then Xiao Wang will be the main force of the national team.  The problem is that football is a sport with a high elimination rate. Young players will drop out of training for various reasons. There are many talented people for the national team, and the last few who are constantly eliminated are the national team.

    The coach is engaged in system engineering, and Xiao Wang is just in the pool of candidates in the system.  From a coach's point of view, losing a talented player is indeed a major loss, but it is only a 'one' loss.  For Xiao Wang, the future of football has been ruined. For the coach, this is called "what is this little pain in the wind and rain?"  '.

    Some people own the system.  some peopleWhat you have is just a role in someone else's system.

    Therefore, if a person wants to truly settle down, he must establish his own system.  So if you have a system, how should you view the roles in the system?  "

    ¡ª¡ª"System? It sounds like he is in charge of the overall situation! If you don't reach that position, you can't do it! Just like the Xiao Wang you just exemplified, normally speaking, because he has football talent, it is necessary to develop in this area.  That's right!

    However, in the end, it was because of bad luck that the injury fell short.  That said, success still has a lot to do with luck.  Moreover, Xiao Wang has no way to control such bad luck!

    As you said just now, if you know where there is danger, you don't go there; then it is obvious.  It was not good luck for Xiao Wang to be valued by the coach, but he ended up with injuries all over his body.  "

    Chu Lihua blinked her eyes and scratched her head, "Knowing that this is a high-risk job, he should be very careful at ordinary times and try to minimize the risk of serious injury; he should hone his body and skills instead of a single  The outcome of the game is the goal; he should broaden his horizons and understand different styles of play; he should get in touch with several teams and coaches instead of betting all on one coach; he should learn some cultural knowledge as a backup  "

    ¡ª¡ª"I suddenly remembered a poem by Bai Juyi in the Tang Dynasty:

    Give you a way to solve doubts, don't have to drill turtles and wish yarrow.

    It takes three days to burn the jade for testing, and it takes seven years to distinguish the material.

    Duke Zhou was afraid of rumors, but Wang Mang was humble and humble.

    Xiang Shi died at the time of birth, so who knows if it will be true or not?  "

    ? Chu Lihua smiled knowingly, Liu Xingting really understood her, even if there was something left to say.  He already understood what he meant.

    The gentle night wind blows, making Chu Lihua more and more clear, but look at the sleeping twins in the stroller

    ¡ª¡ª"It's so late today by accident, I have to take the child back to bed quickly."

    ¡ª¡ª"Go, I'll take you back." (Remember this website URL: www.hlnovel.com
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