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Chapter 511 All the roads I have traveled are useful

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    ?

    Everything is going smoothly as before.

    On the way back to the company, Chu Lihua still walked to the company alone behind other colleagues who came to see off customers.

    It seems that everything is as usual.

    However, for some reason, Chu Lihua felt a little uncomfortable in her stomach today.

    So, after returning to the company, after punching out the card, Chu Lihua went straight to the toilet.

    Of course, without exception, she habitually brushed up her circle of friends.

    A circle of friends of Wang Jiyuan successfully attracted Chu Lihua's attention¡ª¡ª

    "Is the real estate bubble about to burst?"

    Chu Lihua remembered a lecture given by a Peking University professor that she had listened to a long weekend ago.

    This is due to the fact that she often went to the campus of Tsinghua University and Peking University to post small advertisements, and she has long been familiar with the auditorium where she can listen to lectures.  Furthermore, by chance, she also added a group, which was an update group for the lecture schedule.

    Therefore, as long as she has time, she will slip away to listen to lectures.  After all, it is the highest institution of higher education in the country, so it is always good to learn more things.

    She immediately replied according to her own understanding.

    ¡ª¡ª"There is still a lot of room for China's real estate market. There will be no so-called crash in a period of time. As long as you have the ability to buy a house or even speculate in a house (as an investment direction), you can rest assured.

    This is because although China has a large economy and a fast development speed, especially the real estate industry related to people's livelihood, (the fast speed means that people feel that there is more money to buy, but less money).

    However, due to the low starting point, the average wealth owned by Chinese people as an individual is still very small, which is far below the standard of individual house ownership in Western developed countries, so rigid demand is certain.

    However, the development of the real estate market and the rise in prices are related to the development speed of China's economy (it is not directly proportional to your ability, so there is speculation, but speculation cannot last long.)

    Just like a person who has been hungry for a long time, let go of eating all at once, even though the food is not good, but he can't eat too much, otherwise he will get gastroenteritis.

    If you use all the resources you can mobilize in your life to invest in real estate, your future and results will not be the best, and you must be uncomfortable.  And as far as buying a house is concerned, it has at least two purposes.

    ? The first is the need for living, eat and wear warm before talking about investment, otherwise life will be turned upside down by you.

    Therefore, since buying a house is an important issue in life, you must consider it carefully, and you must not be too hot-headed or careless. There is nothing wrong with making a fortune, but you must carefully consider it if you take too much risk in order to make a fortune. Your appetite should not exceed yours.  The ability to resist risks.

    People should be comfortable from being rich and small to moderately rich and comfortable, and then to big rich and big comfortable. Wealth must be accompanied by comfort.

    Just like how good the houses are for migrant workers, if they live in a simple shed in the city for the purpose of earning money and building a house for the rest of their lives, they must think about it. When they have accumulated some money, don¡¯t build a house. Should they invest in something else?  Change your way of life.  "

    Unexpectedly, as soon as this comment was posted, Wang Jiyuan sent a private letter to Chu Lihua.

    ¡ª¡ª"Girl, it's not easy! Can you explain it to me in detail?"

    This time, Chu Lihua didn't dare to take it too seriously, and directly sent the notes she took to Wang Jiyuan.

    ¡ª¡ª"Uncle, I went to Peking University to attend lectures and study. I don't know if my understanding just now is correct. I will send you the notes I took. We can discuss it together.

    Moreover, I think your real estate industry and housing prices are inextricably linked.  I think you will definitely have your own unique insights.

    Now, housing prices in China are already very expensive. Many people will take Japan in 1990 as an example, saying that our current housing prices are like the situation in Japan before 1990, and we are on the eve of the bubble bursting.

    In order to clarify this issue, we use the housing prices in Tokyo in 1990 and the housing prices in Beijing in 2017 to make a simple comparison.

    However, so many years have passed, it is not easy to compare directly, so we use the United States as a yardstick for comparison.

    The United States has been the world's largest economy in recent years, and it is relatively stable, which is a good yardstick.

    In 1990, the price of a better house in Tokyo was about US$80,000 per square meter. What was the price in New York at that time?

    A better house in New York is probably less than 10,000 US dollars, so in 1990, the housing price in Tokyo was more than 8 times that of New York at that time.

    Let's look at the housing prices in Beijing and New York in 2017 this year.  In 2017, the average price in New York was a little over 20,000 US dollars, and the average price in Beijing was a little over 10,000 US dollars.?Twice the house price in Beijing.

    In other words, taking New York housing prices as a benchmark, Tokyo was 8 times that of New York in 1990, and Beijing was 12 times that of New York in 2017. One mile away, the current housing price in Beijing is equivalent to 116 times that of Tokyo in 1990.

    Therefore, although housing prices in Beijing are very expensive, they are still far from the situation in Japan in 1990, far from the same order of magnitude.

    This shows that being expensive and having bubbles are two completely different concepts, and being expensive doesn't necessarily mean having bubbles.

    Regarding whether there is a bubble in housing prices in China's major cities, my doctoral students and I have conducted systematic research, and the basic conclusions can be summed up in three sentences.

    The first sentence, the rapid rise of my country's housing prices in recent years is in line with the general law around the world, and is not a special case.

    You see, in the process of rapid economic growth in many countries, housing prices have risen rapidly, and my country is no exception.

    For example, countries like South Korea, Malaysia, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa.  With the rapid economic growth, housing prices are also rising rapidly, the speed is not slower than ours, and the range is not smaller than ours.  The situation in our country conforms to the general law.

    It's just that it doesn't hurt if the whip doesn't hit us. Although we have seen the rise in housing prices in other countries, we don't pay attention to it and don't feel it deeply.

    However, when housing prices in our country are rising rapidly, we are faced with the pressure of buying a house and a lot of anxiety, and the feeling of that pain is very deep.

    In the second sentence, my country's housing prices still have great potential to rise.  This is determined by our country's current development stage.  By looking at a series of indicators, including the current income level, consumption level, house price level, urbanization rate and so on.

    Our country is now only equivalent to the level of Japan around 1970, or the level of South Korea in the 1980s.  Our current per capita income level is only 17% of that of the United States, and there is still a lot of room for development.

    Then with the further growth of the economy and the further advancement of urbanization, house prices will rise sharply.

    Let me give you an analogy, if you look back at the housing prices of ten years ago, you will find that they are very, very cheap. In the same way, if you look back at today's housing prices more than ten years later, you will also find that they are very cheap.  "(Remember this site URL: www.hlnovel.com
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