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Text Chapter 219 Prediction

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    There will be many choices in life, such as facing the invitation of the girl you like, will you go to the movies with her?  Faced with the temptation of high salaries from headhunters, would you jump to a strange company?  Many choices determine the trajectory of your life.

    How to avoid subjective preferences and use reason to make decisions?  The most commonly used method is comparison and analysis.  To put it simply, it is to list the two possibilities or advantages and disadvantages, and then objectively compare your own interests after the choice.

    Liang Xi learned comparison and analysis from John when he was very young. Comparison and analysis are not difficult, but the difficulty is to be objective.  You can't fill in the objective loss in the bad column just because the girl you like actively pursues and invites you.  What objective loss?  Are you ready to fall in love?  Are you willing to sacrifice your personal time and space to be with your girlfriend?  Can you afford the added expense of being in love?  Do girls have a sincere attitude towards you?  etc.

    Someone asked, after listing the reasons why I should not accept the invitation, what should I do if I want to accept the invitation subjectively?  It doesn't matter, because you have already considered the various consequences after accepting the invitation, and you have already made some psychological preparations for the possible consequences in the future, and you have a certain attitude towards these things.

    ?Information is needed in addition to objective scrutiny.  For example, if a woman just broke up with her yesterday, she asks you to watch a movie today. What is the reason?  Is she good at licking, or is she willing to give herself a chance to make up for the pain in her heart?  or other reasons

    ?Liang Xi began to make a list, and Yingluck died, leading to a shortage of personnel in the city hall, funerals, inheritance disposal, colleagues' mourning, lonely old people's revenge and a series of things that may or will definitely happen.  It may only be possible to choose a possibility with a high probability. For example, after Yingluck¡¯s death, people who hated Yingluck will go to the city hall to congratulate Yingluck. However, it is a possibility with a small probability and can be directly excluded.

    After listing more than 20 possibilities, Liang Xi began to think about supplements.  The next step is to think about derivatives from each possibility.  For example, do the gangsters want to create a gap in personnel? Since Yingluck is a disabled person employed by the city hall, the person who fills Yingluck's position must be a disabled person. The range of options is not very strong, and the bad guys may arrange their own people here.  on post.  From this, what can the bad guys do in this position?  What is the maximum destructive power a bad guy can achieve?

    This is a very stupid method, but also an effective method, which can make Liang Xi lead the bad guys into thinking.  The information held by Liang Xi shows that there are many bad guys, they want to avenge Yi Bona, they are not very permeable, Yingla is the starter, and so on.  Liang Xi wanted to find out their greatest interests and their secondary interests, and further analyze them.

    The second is an abnormal behavior of the bad guys. They want an accurate medical report of Yingluck's injury, instead of judging the lethality of the capsule through the naked eye and the news in general.

    At eleven o'clock in the evening, Karin called from the United States. She wanted to say good night, but she didn't say much when she learned that Liang Xi was going to stay up all night today.  At around one o'clock in the morning, the merchant delivered the takeaway ordered by Karin, which was the Italian noodle soup that Liang Xi liked very much.  After Liang Xi got the food, the two of them got tired of answering the phone for a while.  From the beginning to the end, Karin did not tell Liang Xi to pay attention to his body and rest early.  Karin believes that Liang Xi is a self-disciplined person, and he has his reasons for staying up all night, and supporting him is the best love

    The "accident" of the city hall cannot always be unexpected. The waiting is because the criminal investigation department and the anti-terrorism office need to confirm the case, whether it is a criminal case or a terrorist attack, or it is just an accident or accident.

    Yingluck died shortly after the attack, and some of Yingluck's colleagues learned of Yingluck's death that night.  When the city hall went to work the next day, many colleagues brought a bouquet of flowers and placed them on Yingluck's workbench to express their condolences to the deceased.  Some media paid attention to the incident. As the first chief of the city hall building, how could the mayor, who was under pressure from the election, miss this opportunity?  In other words, he is kind and caring for all the staff of the municipal building.

    Regardless of the reason, after confirming the nature of the case, the mayor held a press conference at around 1 pm the next day after the incident.

    The press conference is at the gate of the city hall, where you can directly see Yingluck's office.  In addition to the media, many people watched the press conference, mainly staff from the city hall and supporters of the mayor.

    The mayor's speaking seat is custom-made. It is a small table commonly seen in the news. There is a bulletproof glass in front of the small table. This is just a basic security measure.

    The mayor said in a heavy and slow tone: "We lost a colleague here yesterday"

    The lines are divided into three parts, the first part is condolences, the second part is instructions, and the third part is condolences and encouragement.  Most politicians are not of high moral character, but the level is not low.  In the six-minute unscripted speech, the mayor spoke with rich emotion and coherent sentences. If there is some bgm, it can be said to be a very beautiful and sensational performance.He will still be the next Mayor of London.  Unless one's competitors come up with bigger moths.  Opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared, and you are the one who is prepared, or a person who dares to take risks

    Cyclops sat in the car, driving with one hand, comfortably chasing the fleeing pickup, and said to Liu Zhen, the co-pilot who was in a fighting state: "This is the magic of detectives. They have the ability to predict like prophets. Detectives and detectives  In some respects, there is a difference in thinking space. Police detectives pay more attention to the pursuit and investigation of actual clues. For example, if there is dye at the scene, they will analyze the dye, trace the dye, check the suspects, and reason about the many possibilities of the dye appearing at the scene.  Verify it one by one."

    Cyclops: "Detectives refer to people like Liang Xi, who pay more attention to the objective environment and the suspect's thoughts and emotions. In this case, Liang Xi left a reasoning at dinner last night: the gangster's accomplice's car was parked in a certain place.  Area. This reasoning is the reasoning that police detectives can also make after discovering suspicious vehicles. But the second step is different. Police detectives have to visit to find witnesses, other vehicles passing by the suspicious vehicle parking area, and search for suspicious garbage around the area  Wait for the work. Before this part of the work is completed or a certain conclusion is reached, the police detective will not easily make new reasoning and judgment."

    Liu Zhendao: "It is possible for a police detective to find the gangster's accomplices directly."

    Cyclops said: "That's right, but detectives only have one or a few people in their daily work, they can't have so many resources to find clues, and they don't have the technical resources to analyze garbage, and they don't have the authority to find witnesses for questioning.  So their thinking will become tricky and weird. They will keep putting forward various possibilities, and then use the means they can use to verify which one of their reasoning is correct. In this case, detectives are good at predicting  The behavior of gangsters. It is easier for police detectives to follow the clues to catch people. On the contrary, if the gangster only commits a crime once, the detective¡¯s prediction will be limited.¡±

    Liu Zhen asked: "Where is the limitation?"

    Cyclops said: "Taking a murder case as an example, the detective will predict what the murderer will do after the murder, such as processing blood, such as watching the scene.  What behaviors will the murderer do differently from others, and the person who does these different behaviors is likely to be the murderer. For example, he has been inquiring about the life and death of the deceased, such as paying close attention to the police investigation. Detectives will also predict that the murderer is undergoing interrogation or making notes  At the same time, it is possible to say something and ask something. But if the murderer is experienced and only commits one case, the pre-judgment will all come to naught. Police detectives are different. They investigate clues, speak with facts and evidence, and can pursue them step by step.  murderer."

    Cyclops stopped the car, and Liu Zhen took people out of the car. An operator used the car door as a cover, took a loudspeaker and shouted at the pickup truck: "Open the car door and put your hands where I can see them."

    Liu Zhen approached from behind the car under the protection of the shield, and then suddenly moved towards the right side of the car.  A member of the action team picked up a demolition device and smashed it at the rear window, smashing the glass and the demolition device into the back seat. Liu Zhen threw the flash bomb in his hand into the car.

    Following the explosion of the flash bomb, another group of people smashed the driver's window and reached out to open the door. Two members of the action team dragged the unconscious driver out of the car and pressed him to the ground. No offensive weapons were found in the body search.

    Cyclops Yoyo lit a victory cigarette, but was pushed aside by Liu Zhen: "Don't pollute the scene."

    Cyclops is dissatisfied, what pollutes the scene There are so many restrictions on being a policeman.  I think back when I was in mi6, I didn¡¯t need to be on the scene, I caught him back for three days, so that he could remember how old he was when he wet the bed.  Violence is not good, and torture is not good.  But it is a very practical question. British prisons are so comfortable and there is no death penalty. How can you let a determined criminal betray his accomplice?

    The only way is to classify the capsule bomb as a terrorist attack, so that the suspect has no lawyer, no bullshit protection, only the basic right to survive.  But the nature of the case is not determined by the police. The police have never been an adjudicative body. The police must send evidence and information to the court, and the judge will decide the nature of the case.  It is also possible that a hearing will be held to determine the nature of the case because the parties have different understandings.

    I don't know how much time it takes to go back and forth. Normally, the wolf-headed person should run away upon hearing the news.  When the judge decides, they have already gone to the Antarctic to catch the penguins to Alaska to feed the polar bears.

    ?
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