In recent years, a subject that has attracted people's attention is that the Warring States Period was an era of famine, disasters and epidemics that was rare in history. According to research by scholar Hisashi Fujiki, taking the 1400s AD as the dividing line to divide the previous Kamakura and Muromachi shogunate periods from the subsequent Warring States Period, we can find such an interesting phenomenon: intermittent famines occurred in the former era, which can be called The "intermittent type", while the latter, except for a brief interruption period in the 1520s, was basically in years of famine, and was called the "chronic type". At the same time, epidemics also spread throughout the world. (In Fujiki's research, there is another interesting content, that is, the impact of climate change on Japanese history. According to the analysis of sea level height by Professor Phil Pulitzer's "Sea Level Curve", climate warming leads to sea level changes. The level-rising "Rhodnest Transgression" reached its highest point around 1110 AD, which was equivalent to Japan's Heian Period and was in the early stages of evolving into a medieval society; after that, the sea level gradually dropped and entered the recession period ( Cold Period), reaching its lowest point in the 15th and 16th centuries (the Warring States Period in Japan was approaching the end, known as the "Paria Retreat"). The wars throughout the Warring States Period were in such a period full of famine, disasters and unfolded against the backdrop of the epidemic. In addition to devoting their energy to domestic rejuvenation, the Warring States Daimyo also transformed the battlefields of external expansion into places where local people and people lived and even survived. In the Warring States Period, when famines, disasters and epidemics occurred frequently, people experienced the pressure of hunger to varying degrees. After the autumn harvest and the winter New Year, there is a difficult transition period before the spring crops are harvested. If there was a bad harvest in the previous autumn, the countryside would fall into a deep food shortage; if not, the people would have to borrow money and grain to get through this difficult situation, often having to rely on selling themselves. wife and servants to maintain basic survival. For the Muromachi period, a transitional period when people's lives were in crisis, scholar Tamura Kenmi made a relatively profound analysis in his research on the living conditions of the medieval people. In his analysis of the "Past Account of the Lower Sovereign Home Temple", he came to the following result: the death period of people in the late Middle Ages was mainly concentrated in early spring to early summer (January to April in the old calendar), and the number of deaths in the period from early autumn to winter It will be reduced a lot. This concentrated death period basically coincides with the so-called transition period. Therefore, the Warring States Daimyo often used foreign aggression wars to overcome famine, disasters and epidemics in their territories. According to different motivations, wars during the Warring States Period can be divided into two categories: 1) planned wars launched against enemy countries at the appropriate time, and 2) wars launched during the rice maturity, harvest period, winter slack period or the transition period between spring and summer. War of plunder. Of course, even the latter's plundering wars included a lot of strategic considerations of attacking enemy countries and expanding territory, but it can be found that the motivation for the wars in this period was by no means purely strategic needs. Below, through an analysis of the period when Takeda Shingen of Kai and Uesugi Kenshin of Echigo sent troops, we will briefly discuss the impact of natural disasters on the launch of wars during the Warring States Period. The aforementioned Fujiki Hisashi pointed out in his analysis of the timing of Uesugi Kenshin's foreign war that there was no obvious pattern in the Hokuriku offensive against the Ichigo clan and other forces and the Northern Shinano strategy launched against Takeda Shingen. In the dispatch of troops to Kanto against the Hojo clan, there are two obvious patterns: 1) Crossing the mountains (Minkoku Pass) in winter, celebrating the New Year in Kanto, and returning home in spring and summer; and 2) Crossing mountains in autumn and winter and returning home within the same year (see The following table is "Chronology of Uesugi Kenshin's appearance in Kanto"). The reason is actually very simple. When it comes to the timing of sending troops to Hokuriku and Northern Shinano, Kenshin is largely affected by the enemy's military actions and does not have a certain tendency. However, in the war organized by Kenshin himself, we can find the huge impact of this transition period on his decision to send troops. That is, the first mode can take advantage of the enemy's food shortage period and high mortality period to send troops, increasing the number of troops. own chance of winning; the second mode mainly relies on plundering mature and harvested rice to enrich one's own side and weaken the enemy accordingly. "Chronology of Uesugi Kenshin's expedition to Kanto in autumn and winter" (refer to the website "Warring States Military Review") In May of the third year of Yonglu (1560), he sent troops to Kanto for the first time and spent the New Year in Mangqiao Castle. In March of the second year (the fourth year of Eiroku), Odawara Castle was surrounded. In the third month of the leap year, he paid homage to the Kanto Governor at Tsurugaoka Hachimangu Shrine and changed his name to Uesugi Masatora. In November of the fourth year of Eilu, he went out to Kanto, fought with Hojo Ujiyasu at Musashi Ikuyama, and spent the New Year at Mangqiao Castle. In November of the fifth year of Yonglu, he went out to Kanto and celebrated the new year in Numata Castle. In October of the sixth year of Yonglu, he went out to Guandong and celebrated the New Year in Mangqiao City. YongluIn October of the seventh year, he went to Kanto and captured Tangze Mountain City. He returned home that year. In November of the eighth year of Yonglu, he went out to Guandong to celebrate the new year. In November of the ninth year of Yonglu, he went out to Kanto and celebrated the new year in Numata Castle. In November of the twelfth year of Yonglu, he went out to Kantung and entered Numata City. He urged the Kantong generals to join the battle and celebrate the new year in Kantung. Returned to Kasugayama Castle in April of the second year (the first year of Gengui). (In addition, in January of the second year of Tianzheng and in January of the sixth year of Tianzheng, Kenshin issued Guan Gong's battle order twice, and immediately sent troops to Guandong, but because they did not cross the year, they are not within the scope of our discussion. There is also Yuangui Er In December of that year (1571), Uesugi attacked Ishikura Castle, the subordinate city of Takeda Shingen, and entered the Kanto Amabashi Castle to celebrate the new year. Although it was not aimed at Hojo, it was also in line with the above rules.) Although Uesugi Kenshin sent troops to Northern Shinano, it had a strong effect. In view of Takeda Shingen's tendency to send troops, we can still sort out a linkage between the Uesugi Army's deployment on Kawanakajima and the harvest period of Northern Shinano's crops: the first Battle of Kawanakajima (Twenty-two Years of Astronomy) , 1553, August ~ September), the second battle of Kawanakajima (the 24th year of Tianwen, 1555, July ~ leap October), the third battle of Kawanakajima (the third year of Hongzhi, 1557, April ~August), the Fourth Battle of Kawanaka Island (the fourth year of Yonglu, 1561, August to September), the fifth Battle of Kawanaka Island (the seventh year of Yonglu, 1564, July to October). Basically, it occurs at the turn of autumn and winter, coinciding with the maturity and harvest period of rice. In addition, according to Uesugikata's records ("Procedure of the Gokaido Battle of Kawanakajima"), on the occasion of the fourth Battle of Kawanakajima, with Kenshin's approval, miscellaneous soldiers of the Uesugi Army attacked the area around Kaizu Castle, Takeda's stronghold. A large-scale "random harvesting" operation (grabbing of crops) was launched in the area around the Takeda Territory's Tsumabushiyama. As a military memorial, its main purpose is to promote the martial arts and great achievements of the daimyo. From this example, describing random fetching as one of the martial arts shows that the institutionalized "rogue fetching" behavior that was common among the daimyo armies in the Warring States Period is also It also happened in the Uesugi Army. It can be seen that for Uesugi Kenshin, the Battle of Kawanakajima was not only a war against Takeda Shingen to expand territory, but also included a special mission to snatch food and solve domestic hunger and poverty. Correspondingly, what is the situation of the Takeda family? The pattern can be seen from the following list of famines, disasters and epidemics in the Takeda clan's territory. This table mainly spans the period from the 4th year of Eisho (1507) when Takeda Nobutora succeeded the family governor to the 6th year of Eiroku (1563), the year before Takeda Shingen's fifth battle of Kawanakajima. Here, a part is excerpted for explanation. (See the following "Record List of Fierce Operations, Disasters, and Diseases in the Takeda Territory" (part). The first sentence is the year, the second sentence is the situation of famine, disasters, epidemics, and crops, and the third sentence is the major events of the year. Mainly based on "Miaohoji Temple" "Book of Records", "Book of Shengshan" and other records) "Record List of Misfortunes, Disasters and Diseases in the Takeda Territory" (Part) Astronomical Nine Years. There were heavy rains from May to June, and strong winds broke out on August 11th (a typhoon in the ninth year of the Astronomical Year), a major disaster. There was no snow that year; there was a bumper barley harvest. Takeda Nobutora sent troops to Shinano, and battles continued frequently, and all the followers were exhausted. "Ten years of astronomy." Starvation in spring (a great famine in the astronomical decade), strong winds blowing from August to September, and bad things happen in the world. Takeda Nobutora was chased and released by his legitimate son Harunobu. "Eleven years of astronomy." In autumn, there were three strong winds, leading to famine (three consecutive years of famine). Takeda Harunobu attacks Suwa. Twelve years of astronomy. unknown. Subdue Oi Sadataka. Thirteen years of astronomy. The barley crop was ferocious, and famines intensified in autumn, when people ate dry leaves to satisfy their hunger; the barley harvest was severely damaged. The Takeda clan began to negotiate with the Hojo clan. Fourteen years of astronomy. There is strong wind in January, famine in spring, heavy snow in February (but it is good for crops), and drought from May to July; winter wheat is destroyed, and barley and wheat are unlucky. Takeda Harunobu sent troops to Ina, causing chaos in Kato, and then Takeda, Hojo, and Imagawa began to make peace. Fifteen years of astronomy. Heavy rains, floods and landslides occurred on July 5th, and a typhoon on the 15th caused crop damage and famine. Takeda Harunobu conquers the inner mountain castle in Saku County. Sixteen years of astronomy. unknown. Played twice a year. Seventeen years of astronomy. Harvest. The combined battles of Uedahara and Shiojiri Pass. ??Eighteen years of astronomy. The big earthquake in April (the big earthquake in the 18th year of Astronomy). After the agreement between Takeda and the Oyamada clan, "excess money" was collected in the county. Nineteenth year of astronomy. In spring, herpes is prevalent among children; in June there are heavy rains and floods; in July and August there are strong winds and famine; because of the strong winds, there are violent events. Takeda was defeated in the battle of Toishi Castle. Twenty years of astronomy. Last year, the famine lasted until spring. From February to May, people dug ferns for food; there was a bumper barley harvest. The Takeda Army captured Hirase Castle and others. The peasants fled because of the expropriation of materials. Twenty-one years of astronomy. January was a warm winter with no wind; the harvest was good and the late rice harvest was good. Takeda Army captures KoiwaIn Yuecheng, Yoshinobu married Imagawa Yoshimoto. "Twenty-two years of astronomy." Severe drought occurs from May to September; barley crops are severe. Takeda Harunobu expelled Murakami Yoshikiyo, the first battle of Kawanakajima. Twenty-three years of astronomy. There was heavy snowfall from January to March, followed by drought, and the Kawaguchi Lake dried up (three consecutive years of drought). On August 13th, there was a strong wind. Houses collapsed and crops fell. There was no snow in winter. Crop growth was not as good as it had been in thirty years. In August, strong winds caused serious damage. The Takeda Army completely occupied the small prefecture and surrendered to the Chihisa clan of Ina County. Takeda Harunobu's daughter married Yasuko Umasa of the Hojo clan. The twenty-fourth year of Tianwen (the first year of Hongzhi). January and February are mild winters. The Second Battle of Kawanakajima. The second year of Hongzhi. unknown. Hongzhi three years. There was a drought in December, a mild winter, and famine; a severe drought, and the taro was spoiled. The third is the battle of Kawanaka Island. The first year of Yonglu. There was a strong wind on August 5th; nearly half of the millet, taro, and barley harvests were harvested, and the rice and soybean harvests were bumper. The Yonglu Famine began. The second year of Yonglu. Heavy snowfall in January caused serious damage; heavy hailstorm on April 15th damaged crops; heavy rain in December caused epidemics; hailstorm in April damaged eggplants, hemp, etc., and nearly half of the barley harvest was harvested. Nagao Kagetora went to Luo for the second time. Yonglu three years. There was heavy snowfall on February 20, and continuous rains from June to October. The epidemic from last year continued, killing many people; long rains from June to October destroyed crops and villages. Nagao Kagetora sent troops to Kanto. Yonglu four years. There was heavy snow from January to February, and the epidemic since the second year of Yonglu continued (for three consecutive years); in autumn, nearly half of the harvest was harvested. Nagao Kagetora surrounded Odawara Castle, then inherited the Uesugi family, and fought in the fourth battle of Kawanakajima. Yonglu five years. There was a drought from October to December; all the rice was lost. It can be seen from this table that starting from the great disaster and famine in the ninth year of Tianwen (1540), the following year the tenth year of Tianwen (1541) encountered an unprecedented famine, which lasted until the following year and for three consecutive years. A rare famine pushed the disaster to its climax. From then on, except for the relative relief in the 17th and 18th years of Tianwen (1548-1549) and the 23rd year of Tianwen (1554), there were still successive years of famine and natural disasters. There was a break from the end of Tianwen to the beginning of Eiroku, and then the sudden "Eiroku Great Famine" came. Correspondingly, the Takeda family's external expansion was relatively concentrated during this period. According to the farming cycle at that time, the period from August to October in autumn was the time for rice to mature and harvest; in the spring and February of the next year, wheat planting began, and the period from April to June ushered in the maturity and harvest period. As mentioned earlier, the timing of Uesugi Kenshin's dispatch of troops to Kanto coincided with the gap between the two main agricultural periods of the enemy country - the transition period. For Uesugi, the goal of sending troops in autumn and winter was, on the one hand, to plunder the enemy's rice and wheat fields (rice and wheat fields), and on the other hand, to reduce the country's population by mobilizing domestic soldiers to fight (" population reduction"), reducing the possibility of famine during the transition period. Of course, the impact of fighting on reducing the opponent's combat effectiveness, farmers and crops is also taken into consideration. On the Takeda side, Shingen's dispatch of troops to Shinano did not show the pattern of this transitional period, but showed that: 1) Send troops from late spring to summer during the wheat maturation season, and 2) send troops from July to November during the rice season. The law of dispatching troops during the mature harvest period. (See the following "List of Takeda Shingen's Major Foreign Military Periods", from the tenth year of Astronomy to the first half of the twelfth year of Eiroku. The first column is the date of the battle, the second column is the location of the battle, and the third column is the departure and return The date of the formation in Kofu is mainly found in "Takabaizhaiji", "Miaohojiji", "Shouya Documents", "Koyo Military Mirror", "Shuzhou Ancient Documents", "Iwanami Bunshu", "Odaiji", and "Matsuhara Shrine". Documents", "Utsunomiya Documents", "Shirakawa Documents", "Kazawa Chronicles", "Suwa Documents", "Satake Documents", "Kamahara Collection", "Okamoto Documents", "Original Documents", " "Akami Documents", "Chronicles since Enlu", "Supplement to Ie Tadashi's Diary" and other historical materials) "List of Takeda Shingen's major overseas military periods" May 25th of the Tenth Year of the Astronomical Period, Uminohei, Oxen County, early May. ~Late June July 4, the 11th year of Astronomy, Suwa Kuwahara battle, April 15th ~ July 9th, September 25th, the 11th year of the Astronomy, Ankokuji battle, September 19th ~ Astronomy 11th September 28th, Ina County Fukuyu Castle ~ late October, September 17th, the 12th year of Tianwen, Xiaoxian County Chief Kubo Castle, September 9th ~ October 1st, October 29th, the 13th year of Tianwen Xiaoxian County Fuyucheng October 16th ~ November 9th April 17th, Ina County Gaoyucheng April 11th ~ June 10th, Ina County Fuyucheng ~ June 17th, May 20th, Astronomical Year 15, Saku-gun Uchiyama Castle, May 3rd~Mid-June August 6, the 16th year of Astronomy, Battle of Odaihara, July 13th~ August 11th, the 16th Year of the Astronomy, Shiga Castle, Saku-gun ~ August 22nd, February 10th, the 17th year of the Astronomy On the 4th, the Battle of Uedahara occurred on February 1st to March 26th. The battle of Shiojiri Pass occurred on July 19th, the 17th year of Astronomy. The battle of Shiojiri Pass occurred on July 17th. On the day of July and September in the 17th year of Astronomy, Saku County invaded. War~Late October September 4th, Astronomical Year 18, Pingyuan City, Saku County, July 1st to September 21st July 15th, Astronomical Year 19, Chikuma County Forest City, etc. July 3rd ~ Astronomical Nineteenth Year October 1st, Xiaoxian County Iishijo ~ October 7th July 20th, the 20th year of Astronomy Iwao Castle, Saku-gun July 2nd ~ July 25th October 24th, the 20th year of Astronomy Hirase Castle in Antan County, October 15th to November 21st, August 12th, 21st Year of Astronomy, Koiwatake Castle, Antan County, August 1st to August 25th, April, 22nd Year of Astronomy March 23rd to May 11th in Kuzuo City, Nianke County on the 9th, August 5th in the 22nd year of Astronomy, Yantian City in Xiaoxian County, July 25th ~ September to October in the 22nd year of Astronomy The First Battle of Kawanakajima - October 17 - August 6, the 23rd Year of the Astronomy - The Nine Castles of Saku County - July 24 - Unknown - August 16, the 23rd Year of the Astronomy - Ina County Kaminomine Castle July 24 ~ Unknown The Second Battle of Kawanakajima from April to Leap October in the Year of Astronomy March 7 ~ Unknown The invasion of Kiso Valley from October to November in the Year of Astronomy III July 7th ~ Unknown February 15th, Shuinei County Geshan Castle in the third year of Hongzhi Unknown ~ October 16th July 5th, Antan County Xiaogucheng in the third year of Hongzhi March 25th ~ October 16th Hongzhi The Third Battle of Kawanakajima on August 29th in the third year, March 25th to October 16th, The Fourth Battle of Kawanakajima on September 10th in the fourth year of Yonglu, August 18th to September Late in November of the fourth year of Eilu, troops were sent to seize Ueno. Late November ~ unknown. In September of the fifth year of Eiro, troops were sent to seize Ueno. September ~ unknown. February 4 of the sixth year of Eilu. Musashi Matsuyama Castle. November to February. Troops were sent to Nojiri Castle in Minato County on March 18th of the seventh year of Roku. March ~ unknown. May of the seventh year of Eiroku. Kanto (Nishi Ueno). May ~ unknown. July of the seventh year of Eiroku. Hida invaded and attacked. July ~ late July of Eiroku. The fifth Battle of Kawanakajima in August of the seventh year of Roku. Early August to early October. June of the eighth year of Eiroku, Kuragano Castle and others. Early May to unknown. September 29 of the ninth year of Eiroku, Minawa Castle. Leap August. ~Unknown April, the 10th year of Eiroku, Shiroi Castle, etc., May~Unknown, July 10, the 11th year of Eiroku, Iiyama Castle, Minai-gun, Echigo Kunosekiyama Castle, June 3rd to October, 10th, the 11th year of Eiroku February to April of the twelfth year of Eiroku, the first Suruga invasion operation, December 6th to April 24th. Among the above examples, there is only one time when Takeda¡¯s troop deployment period conforms to the transition period, and that is Eternal In the sixth year of Lu's reign (1563), troops were dispatched from Kanto (to attack Musashi Matsuyama Castle). In addition, the only troop dispatches in February and March were the Uedahara Battle in the 17th year of Tenmon (1548) in which the attempt to eliminate Murakami Yoshikiyoshi failed, and the Battle of Nojiri Castle on the border of Shinetsu Province (1564) in the 7th year of Eiroku. The former was Shingen's eagerness to defeat the Murakami clan's aggressive advance, while the latter was based on the special situation of heavy snowfall on the Shinetsu border and military judgment that Uesugi Kenshin would find it difficult to march, so he took the opportunity to attack his military key points. Takeda Shingen¡¯s war against the neighboring Shinano Kingdom is directly related to the maturity and harvest period of local crops. The main factor taken into consideration when sending troops is Soda. According to the analysis of Takeda Shingen's military deployment period in his life, it is shown that at the turn of spring and summer or autumn and winter, he ushered in the peak of his military dispatch. (See the following "Form of Separate Dispatch of Troops by Shingen Moon") "Form of Separate Dispatch of Troops by Shingen Moon" (Astronomical Tenth Year to Gengui Three Years, refer to "Battle of Mikatahara" written by Tetsuo Owada) January: 3 times February: 6 times March : 10 times April: 7 times May: 8 times June: 10 times July: 11 times August: 16 times September: 11 times October: 6 times November: 6 times December: 6 times Passed and above From the analysis, it can be seen that although the timing patterns of Uesugi and Takeda sending troops are different, their internal motivations also reveal the famine, disaster, and epidemic during the Warring States Period It has a huge impact on the launch of war, and an important aspect that distinguishes war from battle is that its motivation may include more and more complex factors. I hope the discussion in this article can provide some useful ideas for analyzing other joint battles.