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Text Chapter 260 Discussion of Trend

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    Ma Wenjie went to Donghai Port to implement the equipment transportation, followed by exploration and design, organizing factory construction and employee recruitment and training. Even though he brought a team of more than a dozen people, he was still very busy. It was not until a week later that  Time to sit down with Li Rui.  "I'm going to Russia next month. I'll ask you to take care of these people I brought with me who are unfamiliar with the place." Li Rui was stunned after hearing this, "Brother Wenjie, didn't you say you won't go in the future?  Well, and it¡¯s freezing weather there next month, so why go there?¡± Ma Wenjie smiled and said, ¡°Almost all my assets have been invested in this cement plant project, and now the business in Russia is  It¡¯s still easy to do, but you can¡¯t just let the money go without making money.¡± ¡°So what kind of business do you want to do? Or is it an international businessman?¡± Li Rui asked with a smile.  Ma Wenjie shook his head and said: "More and more people are going to Russia to do business now, and it is not easy to do international business." He sighed and said: "Actually, we are just picking something that others don't want to eat.  As for the leftovers, it is the Western countries that are really making the big money. They opened banks in Russia as early as a few years ago. These modern private banks that "don't have to queue up", "treat customers with a smile" and have "independent accounting" are springing up all over the country.  In every city in Russia, their free coffee and kind smiles undoubtedly give the Russian people a feeling: these foreign banks are much better than those state-owned banks. In this context, these foreign banks and financial institutions have passed through various channels.  This gray method absorbed a large number of Russian private and corporate ruble savings, and moved them from state-owned banks to foreign banks. In addition, foreign banks also used various gray methods to transfer their savings.  The Russian Central Bank, state-owned banks and state-owned financial institutions were arbitrarily raking in rubles. "When the Soviet Union just collapsed, the first thing Russia carried out was the privatization reform of state-owned enterprises. At that time, everyone could almost divide the state-owned assets.  To 10,000 to 15,000 rubles, it would be 30,000 to 40,000 US dollars based on the exchange rate at that time. This is not a small number. It can be said that people all over Russia are partying. " Hearing this, Li Rui already understood.  Ma Wenjie is talking about the ruble depreciation that just broke out two years ago and will last until the next century.  I saw him sighing deeply again and saying: "After the Soviet depositors and Soviet state-owned banks had sufficient ruble ammunition to attract foreign investment in those Western countries, which were completely borrowed, a war began to slander the market with a price.  The securities movement began. Those bonds were the bonds of state-owned enterprises with little ability to pay dividends. It was better to sell them for cash than to keep them useless! The Russian people began to sell bonds one after another, and at the same time, these foreign investors in the market plummeted.  The bank began to quietly privatize the bond purchase operation at the same time" Li Rui was clear about this history, but when he heard Ma Wenjie, a person who had experienced it, talk about it again, he felt something else in his heart, and he followed his words.  He went on and said: "Let's put it this way. These state-owned enterprises left by the former Soviet Union were sold by their people." Ma Wenjie nodded and said with a wry smile: "It's a pity that those of us who just went there still can't understand those foreign banks."  In the process of repurchasing bonds, astronomical ruble debts were owed, and even the interest was an extremely huge amount, which was enough to bring down these foreign banks and make them bankrupt. But no one expected the friendship of the United States at this time.  The financial expert group put forward suggestions with a "friendly purpose" - further relaxing regulations on the free exchange of rubles and US dollars to combat black market transactions. "The Russians must have been fooled," Li Rui interjected.  "At that time, Russia was democratizing, and financial experts and independent media from the United States and the former Soviet Union repeatedly ridiculed the 'administrative financial regulatory methods' and described the normal central bank's financial regulatory powers and practices as 'centralized behavior.'  , and people were very excited about the newly acquired political democracy, and under this kind of friendly suggestion, financial controls were relaxed without seeing the subsequent crisis at all." Ma Wenjie nodded.  Li Rui thought about how this scene was very similar to the so-called brick-and-mortar and beast-calling comments he had seen on the Internet all his life.  It seems that this scene has happened again in my own country. What will it develop into in the future?  Will it be the same as the former Soviet Union?  It might be decades before he sees it.  But he was still praying in his heart: I hope this kind of tragedy would not happen in his country, even though his country is still so magical.  Ma Wenjie continued: "After financial liberalization, queues appeared outside private banks to exchange dollars. Why did people exchange rubles for dollars? Because hyperinflation occurred in Russia. Why did hyperinflation occur? Because supply in the former Soviet Union  Under the system, all major consumer goods are supplied on a voucher basis. However, the supply of daily necessities is seriously insufficient and the market?The gap between supply and residents¡¯ money income has reached about 50%.  For example, a person is paid a salary of one hundred rubles, but can only buy up to fifty rubles of daily necessities with tickets, and the remaining fifty rubles can only be deposited in the bank.  Over time, the Soviet people had a lot of deposits in banks, and they suddenly opened up the market and realized a market economy.  People can freely buy and sell daily necessities. Under conditions of extreme shortage of goods, excess ruble deposits will chase the shortage of goods, leading to inflation.  In other words, the original fifty rubles of goods will instantly increase in price to one hundred rubles.  Chronic shortages of goods and excess of money.  In the short period of time when the market economy was opened, the accumulated energy was extremely amazing.  " At this point, Ma Wenjie said happily again: "Our country has also been initially liberalizing the market in recent years. Perhaps it has also learned from the lessons of the former Soviet Union. It is not liberalizing all at once, but gradually and steadily. Although it has also caused  There has been some inflation, but not nearly as much as in Russia.  Even if there are some fluctuations in commodity prices on the market, they are extremely limited.  What's more important is that our country's banks did not relax immediately, which also effectively curbed inflation.  " "I heard that the exchange rate between the ruble and the US dollar is almost reaching 1:3000.  "Li Rui said. "It's not just that!  Ma Wenjie shook his head and said, "The official exchange rate of the ruble announced just yesterday is 1:3235, but the price on the black market has already exceeded 4,000."  Back when the Soviet Union had just disintegrated, the exchange rate of the ruble was 1:0.6!  Those foreign banks began to absorb ruble deposits and loans at that time.  Let me tell you, once hyperinflation occurs, people will think about how to preserve value.  And switching to stable U.S. dollars is a good way to do that.  So people started lining up to exchange dollars.  " Having said this, Ma Wenjie took a sip of tea, with an expression on his face that was both sad and mocking: "At this time, those anxious Russian officials have not paid attention to these private banks with good services and no need to queue.  No more free coffee!  The smile they faced has turned into a sneer: because at this time, in the eyes of private banks, they are no longer noble customers, but beggars!  " "The former Soviet president who stepped down probably never dreamed that the pension that was enough to live the rest of his life comfortably was not worth even fifty dollars.  Then he said with an annoyed look on his face: "I think we actually had a good relationship with those government officials back then. After all, we were all in a socialist country before, and there was a honeymoon period in history."  Everyone still has class feelings.  But why didn't I think of borrowing money from their state-owned banks at that time? Otherwise, I would have made thousands or even tens of thousands of times in profits by now!  And it¡¯s still depreciating. Do you know how miserable the Russian people are now?  Not long ago, I wanted to recruit some technical talents for cement plants. Those were the elites of the cement industry in the former Soviet Union. They earned two hundred dollars a month and made a lot of money.  I'm willing to leave my hometown and come with me.  Speaking of which, they will be arriving next month, so you can help take care of them then. I don't worry about anything else about these old idiots. I just don't have any control over their drinking, so I'm afraid that something will happen to them after they drink.  " "This is no problem, don't worry.  "Li Rui nodded. Then he asked: "Brother Wenjie, do you want to go over this time and want to get some loans or something?  " "Do you think Lao Maozi is that stupid?  They have known for a long time that they have been deceived by Western countries, and now they have begun to gradually tighten their monetary policy. This road is no longer feasible.  Ma Wenjie shook his head and sighed, "I went there this time mainly because I wanted to inspect their oil industry and see if there were any business opportunities in the energy field."  " Hearing that Ma Wenjie wanted to enter the Russian oil industry, Li Rui immediately became alarmed. Oil these days is not like liquid gold later. Although oil prices began to skyrocket after the outbreak of the first Gulf War, they are still stable at a relatively low level.  However, he clearly remembers that oil prices will continue to plummet in the next few years. During the economic crisis in 1997 and 1998, oil prices once fell to 134 US dollars a barrel.  Although he deceived Qi Zheng and Ma Xiaojun, Li Rui still felt that it was necessary to remind him, "Brother Wenjie, please think carefully. Investing in the oil industry is not a simple matter. It requires a lot of effort.  Not only do you need a small amount of capital, but you also need to have strong interpersonal relationships there. Otherwise, if you don¡¯t get it right, you¡¯ll end up with nothing!  " "There is no problem with funds. This time I went to Beijing, but a few friends were very interested in Russian oil and wanted to use my connections there to cooperate in oil exploration. It would be best if I could purchase a few oil wells.  When I was in St. Petersburg last year, I happened to know a deputy mayor there. Two oil companies under them were having a hard time due to the current poor oil sales, and they were trying to find ways to attract foreign investment.  However, the deputy mayor has a very good character. It may be that some companies from Western countries have put forward some harsh conditions, but he is determined not to do so now.They want to cooperate with Western oil companies, and they are very interested in cooperating with us.  " Ma Wenjie said. "Really? This deputy mayor does have a bit of a personality.  "Li Rui said with a smile, but even so, he still disapproved of Ma Wenjie's cooperation with the St. Petersburg oil company. At least the time is still ripe now. If he waits a few more years, when the oil price drops to the lowest, that will be the best time to intervene.  In fact, the largest consumers of oil in this era are the United States, Europe and Japan, but none of them buy Russian oil. There is only one reason. They finally brought down the former Soviet Union, so how can they continue to be troubled?  Let¡¯s talk about the first Gulf War. Originally, the United Nations forces were fully capable of overthrowing Saddam¡¯s regime, but after they took back Kuwait, they did not march towards Baghdad. Although the slogan was to help Kuwait and uphold justice, in fact everyone wanted to do so.  I understand, as the old Chinese saying goes: Raise a thief to respect yourself! In this way, you can control the oil supply of most countries in the Gulf. With the stable oil supply in the Gulf, all countries participating in the United Nations Army will naturally benefit, even Russia.  Recently, European countries have also ignored them. The former Soviet Union and later Russia's foreign exchange income mainly relied on oil exports. Oil could not be sold. The domestic economic collapse required a large amount of foreign exchange for blood transfusions, forcing Russia to turn to the seven Western countries.  The group borrowed money at high interest rates. When Li Rui analyzed these international situations to Ma Wenjie, Ma Wenjie looked at him dumbfounded and asked in surprise: "Where did you hear all this?  This kind of news should be hard to see in China!  " Li Rui smiled and said: "Some of them were analyzed by me myself, and some of them were read from Hong Kong magazines.  Then he added: "Actually, now is not the best time to invest in Russian oil."  Just now we talked about Russia borrowing money from the Group of Seven Western countries. This money is not borrowed in vain. The high interest rate does not count. Russia must also exchange it for national interests.  Let¡¯s not talk about anything else, let¡¯s talk about the current NATO. According to the agreement signed by the Soviet Union and the United States, the Warsaw Pact was disbanded, and NATO should also be disbanded. But now NATO is still good. This is enough to show that Russia has given in to borrow money.  The existence of NATO has been acquiesced.  However, Russia has not yet agreed to NATO's eastward expansion. For Russia, Europe is its strategic focus and core interests. It will not give in until it is absolutely necessary. He wants to take a breather and wait until his strength recovers.  .  " Ma Wenjie thought about it carefully, nodded and said: "Well, that makes sense.  Do you mean that the United States and other Western countries are absolutely unwilling to see a powerful Russia rise again, and will continue to put pressure on Russia and finally force it to agree to NATO's eastward expansion?  "
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