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Chapter 1806 The actual situation of the world¡¯s largest reserves

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    Hearing what Bao Feiyang said, several designers nodded. Compared with developed countries such as Europe and the United States, our start was indeed too late and our development time was short.  ¡°What District Chief Bao means is that in the future our steel output will reach one billion tons, but the proportion of short-process steelmaking will increase, so the demand for iron ore may not be that much?¡± Liu Ziyan asked.  Bao Feiyang nodded, and then shook his head: "Indeed, in the future, after the steel stock has accumulated to a certain extent, our short-process steelmaking will also increase. However, because our stock is too small and the development is too fast, this means Since we don¡¯t have that much domestic scrap steel, our short-process steelmaking will develop, but a lot of the scrap steel needed for short-process steelmaking must be imported. ¡°In addition, our demand for steel is too large, even if it is imported scrap steel. It cannot completely solve the problem. The current global scrap steel trade volume is about 50 million tons a year. Even if it doubles, 100 million tons will only account for 10% of a billion tons. my country's iron and steel ratio will still remain at 10% in the future. The higher ratio is about 0.95, which is difficult to lower, that is, about 50 million tons of short-process steelmaking" Bao Feiyang said: "Develop short-process steelmaking because scrap steel must be purchased from abroad. Cost reduction is limited. In addition, short-process steelmaking technology is completely different from long-process steelmaking. Without mature technology, it is difficult to control the quality of scrap steel resmelting, so it is difficult to develop this area in a short time. Perhaps it will wait until domestic steel production exceeds one billion tons. , and after a certain amount of accumulation, short-process steelmaking will slowly increase! " "Short-process steelmaking is not the root cause of the deviation in the calculation of iron ore consumption. A very important reason is that domestic iron ore and imported iron The grade of ore is different, and domestic iron ore is calculated based on raw ore, while imported iron ore is calculated as ore powder, so the measurement is different. Generally in the industry, we multiply imported iron ore by two Bao Feiyang said.  "So when my country's steel production reaches one billion tons and the iron-to-steel ratio is around 0.95, considering that my country's iron ore production will also increase by about five times, and the output can reach about one billion tons, the import volume of iron ore should It will not exceed 1.5 billion tons, and it will be more than 1.2 billion tons!" Bao Feiyang said.  This data was calculated by Bao Feiyang¡¯s experts from Pudong Iron and Steel based on the predictions he provided and the current iron ore output, imported iron ore grade and other data models.  Chen Yusheng frowned imperceptibly: "Director Bao, in order to prepare for this project, I recently learned a little bit about the situation in the steel industry. Last year, my country imported 50 million tons of iron ore and spent more than one billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange. , if the amount of imported iron ore increases twenty-fold, it means that we will spend 20 billion US dollars in foreign exchange a year on iron ore" Twenty years of reform and opening up, after many years of development After accumulation, the country's foreign exchange is now not as valuable as when it first opened up. In 1998, the country's foreign exchange reserves reached more than 140 billion US dollars, ranking second in the world after Japan.  The total import and export volume for the whole year reached more than 370 billion US dollars, of which exports were 200 billion US dollars and imports were more than 160 billion US dollars.  For iron ore alone, the foreign exchange spent on imports throughout the year exceeded one billion, which is 6/1000 of the total imports, less than 1%. It may not seem like a large proportion, but it is not.  Less. After all, there are many categories of foreign trade imports. Iron ore alone consumes 6% of it, which is really a lot.  Chen Yusheng experienced the days of foreign exchange shortage in the early days of reform and opening up. In his view, precious foreign exchange should be used to introduce advanced technology and equipment that we are in short supply, rather than spending it on primary products such as iron ore.  Although when it comes to industrial upgrading, we are very reluctant to export primary resources in exchange for foreign exchange. However, when we have not yet developed, we have to spend precious foreign exchange to import primary resources, which makes everyone feel even more uncomfortable.  When he heard that the scale of iron ore imports would continue to expand and even cost 20 billion US dollars, Chen Yusheng couldn't help it.  In fact, when Chen Yusheng calculated this figure, he did not include inflation and the increase in iron ore prices.  The current price of iron ore has been affected by the financial crisis of 1997. The price has dropped from more than 30 US dollars per ton to more than 20 US dollars. It is the cheapest time in recent years. In the future, the price of iron ore will continue to rise, especially  Starting in 2002, it tripled in three years, from twenty-five US dollars to more than sixty US dollars, and will reach a high of more than one hundred US dollars in the future.  The foreign exchange used to import iron ore is not US$20 billion, but hundreds of billions of US dollars.  Others also realized the seriousness of this problem. Liu Ziyan thought for a while and asked: "I remember when I was studying, the book seemed to say that our country has the largest iron ore reserves in the world, so why do we still import iron ore?"  What about iron ore? Even if our steel industry develops rapidly, we don¡¯t need to import so much iron ore, right?¡±; Bao Feiyang smiled and said: "Well, according to the current data, my country has the largest iron ore reserves in the world, with proven reserves of 25 billion tons, followed by Ukraine's 22 billion tons and Russia's 20 billion tons. and Australia¡¯s 18 billion tons, but the grade of my country¡¯s iron ore is relatively low, with an average grade of only 33.5%, while the average grade of the world¡¯s iron ore has reached 52.9%. This is the result of being dragged down by us¡± Bao Feiyang shook his head Shaking his head, he continued: "Our country's iron ore is the lowest grade among the top ten iron ore resource countries in the world. The iron ore mined by most countries in the world is above 58%-60%, and high-grade iron ore is imported. It has reached more than 65%, so when calculating imported iron ore, we will calculate it based on twice the amount of domestic iron ore. " "Isn't it possible that the grade is so different? "Everyone who doesn't know the steel industry very well is very shocked.  Bao Feiyang said: ¡°According to the Chinese government¡¯s survey on iron ore resources, most of my country¡¯s iron ore reserves are poor iron ore, and the total reserves of rich iron ore are only 1.2 billion tons, accounting for less than 100% of the country¡¯s total reserves. Three-thirds of them, of which only 180 million tons are iron-rich ores used for steelmaking, that is, those with an iron content of 56%, and 10 million tons of iron-rich ores used for ironmaking, that is, those with an iron content of 50%. Billions of tons, and most of these rich iron ores are scattered in several large iron ore areas and cannot be mined independently according to usual international standards. Many of my country's iron ores do not even meet mining standards. The grade standards for mining iron ore, excluding iron ores that do not meet the standards, our country¡¯s iron ore resources are very limited!¡± ¡°In addition to the low grade of ore, my country¡¯s iron ore also has various types of deposits. There are various types of ores, complex ore compositions, and difficult selection and smelting. According to statistics, among my country¡¯s iron ore reserves, multi-component symbiotic and associated iron ore reserves account for about one-third of the total reserves, involving many large and medium-sized mining areas in the country. This situation exists in all places, such as Panzhihua, Huanggang, etc. The ore dressing and smelting process is complex, the level of dressing and smelting technology is low, and the ore is difficult to utilize. "Bao Feiyang said: "my country's steelmaking industry is developing rapidly, and the demand for iron ore is very low. Quantity demand continues to increase, and quality requirements are getting higher and higher. However, domestic supply of high-grade, high-quality iron ore is insufficient. Low-grade, low-quality iron ore is indeed market competitive, so the import of iron ore is constantly increasing. " "Actually, at the beginning of reform and opening up, my country's iron ore imports reached 8 million tons in 1978, and exceeded 10 million tons in 1985, maintaining an average annual growth of 14.9%, which was the highest in my country during the same period. Non-fuel raw ore has the largest import volume, the fastest growth rate, and consumes the most foreign exchange!¡± ¡°I really don¡¯t know much about this!¡± Chen Yusheng smiled bitterly and shook his head. They are engaged in architectural design and have no knowledge of the steel industry. My understanding can only be said to be superficial. After all, there are specialties in the art industry.  Liu Ziyan was even more surprised and dumbfounded. Like most young people, Liu Ziyan knew from elementary school geography textbooks that China had the largest iron ore reserves in the world. She also learned from political textbooks that China could only export primary products because of its backward economy.  , importing industrial products, but she did not expect that the situation in the steel industry was completely opposite to what she imagined. As a country with the richest iron ore reserves in the world, it needs to import a large amount of iron ore. This is simply too surprising.  The reason why Bao Feiyang wants to explain this situation in detail is to let the designers of these ports have a more intuitive understanding of China's iron ore transportation, especially to let them understand the future import volume of iron ore.  Will continue to rise, so the design of iron ore terminals needs to be forward-thinking!  "It is foreseeable that with the further development of our country's economy, especially the improvement of domestic consumption levels and the intensification of infrastructure construction, our demand for steel will grow even greater. It can also be known from the industrialization process of European and American countries that in In the short term of industrialization, the demand for steel will continue to increase. Steel is the food of industry, the skeleton of infrastructure, and an indispensable commodity raw material for improving people's living standards In at most 20 years, domestic steel production will increase. The demand for iron ore has exceeded one billion tons, and the demand for iron ore has exceeded two billion tons, more than half of which needs to be imported" Bao Feiyang said: "At present, the main source countries of my country's iron ore imports are Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India and Peru, of which more than 50% are imported from Australia! Among them, the iron ore exploration prospects in Australia and Brazil are promising. Considering the iron ore reserves and transportation costs, the structure of my country's iron ore imports will not change in the future. If there are too many changes, generally the iron ore will be from Australia and Brazil, and then South Africa and India. The transportation method will basically be by sea!¡±
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