The biggest beneficiary of large-scale nuclear disarmament is not the Second German Empire, but China.
To put it bluntly, when Gu Zhutong was president, China's strategic advantages were already very obvious and it had taken the initiative in the Cold War. If large-scale nuclear disarmament does not benefit China, or the benefits China obtains are not as good as those of its opponents, then There is no reason for China to carry out nuclear disarmament.
Later, many people believed that it was the strategic disarmament promoted by Herzendorf that ruined the Second German Reich.
The reason is that in the mid-1980s, China's armament pressure was no less than that of the Second German Empire, and its military expenditures had reached a level that was unbearable for the national economy. If the Cold War continued, China's economy would definitely decline at some point. Collapse may take less than ten years.
It is undeniable that this is indeed a valid reason.
In 1986, China's military expenditure accounted for more than 20% of government expenditure, and it was increasing at a rate of more than 10% per year, while China's fiscal revenue increased by less than 10% per year. 5%, while the national economy grew by less than 3%. Obviously, excessive and fast-growing military expenditure will definitely force the Chinese government to declare bankruptcy within ten years.
Of course, if military spending is controlled, it may be able to support the country for a few more years.
However, by the end of the twentieth century, this situation will definitely deteriorate seriously.
This is that, according to China¡¯s arms development plan, by the end of the twentieth century, the conventional equipment of the army, navy and air force will have been updated. By then, fifth-generation fighter jets, third-generation nuclear-powered super aircraft carriers, fourth-generation nuclear submarines, fourth-generation nuclear submarines, etc. A large number of new equipment such as main battle tanks will be released. Therefore, as long as the Cold War continues, China's military expenditure will definitely reach a new peak at this time. Depending on the subsequent purchase prices of these new equipment, military expenditures may account for more than 50% of government expenditures by then.
??Obviously, this will definitely lead to the bankruptcy of the Chinese government and even the complete collapse of the Chinese economy.
The result is obvious: China will either break out a domestic revolution on the basis of persisting in the Cold War, or end the Cold War by giving in.
The issue is. There must be a major prerequisite for such a situation to occur.
This is that the Second German Empire did not fall before China, and the Second German Empire still posed a large enough threat to China. That is to say, the Second German Empire must have a strong enough military strength to force China to maintain a huge armament scale.
?Obviously, this premise does not exist.
As long as the Cold War lasts. The Second German Reich would completely collapse not by the end of the 20th century, but by the early 1990s.
¡°Obviously, as long as the Second German Reich is finished, the Cold War will be over, and China will have no reason to continue to maintain a huge armament scale.
To put it bluntly, what Herzendorf did was to save the Second German Empire, but the benefits he gained were not as great as imagined.
More importantly, in strategic disarmament, the Second German Reich did not have much room for negotiation.
do not forget. It was not the Second German Reich that led strategic disarmament, but China.
¡°At least when it comes to strategic disarmament negotiations, China has a second option, which is to continue military confrontation and wait for the collapse of the Second German Reich in civil strife. Apparently. The Second German Reich had no such choice. Without strategic disarmament, the Second German Reich would be doomed.
Combining these factors, it is not difficult to understand the situation of the Second German Empire at that time.
Through strategic disarmament, China¡¯s nuclear military expenditure has been sharply reduced after the scale of its nuclear arsenal has been significantly reduced. There will also be more funds to develop conventional weapons and improve the country's strategic defense capabilities. More importantly, China's overall military expenditure has been effectively controlled.
It is undeniable that the strategic threat to the Second German Reich has also been reduced, and the expenditure on nuclear weapons has also been significantly reduced. The problem is that this does not mean that the military expenditures of the Second German Empire have been significantly reduced. That is, the gap in conventional military strength and the negative impact of the weakening of nuclear forces on strategic forces have forced the Second German Empire to spend more on conventional armaments. Keep up the good work.
The most representative ones are the two fourth-band fighters of the Imperial Air Force.
Before Herzendorf came to power, the Imperial Air Force had only acquired one fourth-generation fighter, the He-550 forward support fighter. Limited by its combat mission, the he-550 is a medium-sized fighter weighing about twenty tons. Its status is equivalent to the J-84 multi-purpose fighter of the Chinese Air Force, but it places more emphasis on air superiority combat capabilities rather than the J-84. That emphasis on ground strike capability.
Obviously, the he-550 does not have the ability to compete with the j-80ability.
For example, if the He-550 does not carry auxiliary fuel tanks, its air superiority combat radius is only 400 kilometers. Even if it carries three auxiliary fuel tanks, it is only 700 kilometers. The J-80's combat radius is 800 kilometers when not carrying auxiliary fuel tanks, and it can reach 1,500 kilometers when carrying three auxiliary fuel tanks.
More importantly, the small body limits the He-550's ability to carry electronic equipment.
It can be said that in addition to its commendable maneuverability, the He-550 is simply unable to compete with the fourth-generation fighter jets represented by the J-80 in other aspects, especially in beyond-visual-range air combat determined by radar performance. Third-generation fighters have improved.
You must know that an important feature of the fourth-generation fighter jets is their powerful beyond-visual-range air combat capabilities.
Not to mention heavy fighters, even light and medium fighters such as the J-84 and J-88, their later improved models also have powerful beyond-visual-range air combat capabilities.
The he-550 could not compete with the j-80, forcing the German army to develop heavy fighter jets.
This is the BF-400 fighter jet.
When Herzendorf came to power, the BF-400 was still in the design stage. Just two years later, in 1988, this heavy fighter with the J-80 as its imaginary enemy was officially finalized, and the first batch of prototypes were manufactured and intense flight tests began.
The BF-400 is a typical heavy-duty air superiority fighter. Its bomb load and range can rival the J-80, and it also has enough internal space to install a high-power radar. More importantly, thanks to the high-thrust military turbofan engine, the maneuverability of the BF-400 is very good, even surpassing the He-550. During the test flight, the prototype BF-400 broke more than 20 flight records.
The problem is that the mass production of bf-400 is ten years later than that of j-80!
What¡¯s even more terrible is that the Second German Empire invested an astonishing amount of research and development funds in this type of fighter. Its overall cost even exceeded the sum of the two fourth-generation fighter jets of the Chinese Air Force.
Of course, the German army¡¯s advanced equipment projects at that time were not just the BF-400.
According to later published information, in the first four years of Herzendorf¡¯s administration, the actual military expenditures of the German army did not decrease compared with before he came to power, but instead increased.
This has caused a very serious problem.
This is because Herzendorf failed to fulfill his election promise, and his domestic support began to decline.
By the end of 19**, Herzendorf's public approval rating had dropped to less than 50 percent, and many voters were very dissatisfied with him.
?Obviously, this is never a good thing.
This is, 1990 is the election year of the Second German Reich. If Herzendorf's party loses the federal parliamentary election, then he will step down.
If you want to win the election, you must introduce policies that can bring practical benefits to the people.
Political needs led Herzendorf to do an extremely important thing at the end of 19**, something that changed the destiny of the empire.
This is to implement comprehensive economic reforms with marketization as the core.
Nominally, the Second German Reich was a market economy country, but in reality it was not, and it was related to the Cold War that lasted for more than thirty years.
During the Cold War, in view of the fact that the overall national strength of Germany was not as good as that of China, the Second German Empire adopted a nationalization strategy in the economy, that is, using state holdings to control enterprises that had a significant influence on the national economy. On this basis, it built dozens of a state-owned group.
Of course, the nationalization of enterprises did not begin during the Cold War.
As early as during the war, in order to meet the needs of the war, the Second German Empire merged large enterprises such as Krupp Military Industries, Deutsche Shipbuilding Group, Siemens Electric Industries, Zeiss Optical Equipment Company, Mercedes Group, BMW and other large enterprises into state-owned enterprises.
After the war, the authorities of the Second German Reich did not abandon the state-owned policy, but strengthened their control over major enterprises.
By the time Herzendorf came to power, state-owned enterprises accounted for more than 60% of the empire's economy, and controlled more than 100 of the largest enterprises in the empire.
It is undeniable that these state-owned enterprises played a great role in the Cold War.
The problem is that the shortcomings of state-owned enterprises have also been exposed, that is, low operating efficiency, serious corruption, etc. Moreover, state-owned enterprises are mainly heavy industry, with the military industry as the core, and they have occupied a large amount of resources for a long time, resulting in the decline of private enterprises mainly in light industry. It is difficult to develop.
The problem Herzendorf faces is that people don¡¯t get enough daily necessities.
¡°Obviously, the only way to change this situation is to break the monopoly of state-owned enterprises on resources and allow private enterprises to develop civilian products.
It is undeniable that the empire must carry out economic reforms and must also abolish the model of mainly state-owned economy.
The problem is that Herzendorf took this step too hastily and too far.
According to the reform plan proposed by Herzendorf, he will transform non-military enterprises, which account for half of the total number of state-owned enterprises, into private enterprises within one year, encourage these enterprises to produce civilian goods, and within five years, remove the core All state-owned enterprises except military-industrial enterprises were converted into private enterprises.
¡°Obviously, too fast a pace of reform will only lead to chaos.
The actual situation was exactly the same. Herzendorf suddenly stepped on the brakes, causing the high-speed chariot of the Second German Empire to overturn on the spot.
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