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Volume 1 112 Know your opponent

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    The actual confrontation finally ended with a great victory for the red side. The alert Lippett finally escaped the hunt of the red side fleet with his Amazon, and he was the only one on the blue side who still saved a little face.

    The five-week RIMPAC exercise finally came to an end. Undoubtedly, the Chinese became the biggest winner and the most watched role in the exercise.  Generally speaking, an exercise is an exercise after all, and even if something is achieved, it is not in the true sense.  The winner does not necessarily gain the most, the loser can also learn lessons from the exercise.

    Sailors from various countries are still enjoying their last happy time in Hawaii. In the headquarters office of the Pacific Fleet, four-star Admiral Hayes and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who came specially from Washington, were also the previous Pacific Command.  The commander, William Crowe, had a long talk.

    The outstanding performance of the Chinese Navy at RIMPAC not only left the U.S. Navy at a loss, but also made those in power in Washington feel a little uneasy.  So the Reagan administration specially sent Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Crowe to fly directly to Hawaii, nominally to attend the closing ceremony of the Rim of the Pacific joint military exercise, but actually to get a feel for it.

    Crowe only stepped down last year, and he knows everything about the situation of the Pacific Fleet. He is convinced of the strength of the Pacific Fleet. However, in the two major events of anti-submarine warfare and actual combat, the Chinese used seemingly relatively weak forces.  , achieved a greater advantage victory.  This made Mr. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff a little restless.

    "Ronald, tell me, are the Chinese really so strong that our boys can't fight against them?" Crowe looked worried when he came up.

    Ronald Hayes seemed much calmer. He smiled and said: "To be honest, I think our failure this time is very reasonable and even necessary. If you lose, you lose. I don't want to defend it."  What, the Chinese do have a reason to win in the exercise. Since they came to Pearl Harbor, they have shown a desire to survive, discipline and spirit that other navies do not possess. They are attacking with all their strength like a lion fighting a rabbit.  Our boys and allies have not been adjusted to the best condition. In addition, there is no doubt that the Chinese have done a good job in our intelligence work and understanding, but we know almost nothing about them. This information asymmetry is also a problem.  This resulted in this ugly outcome.¡±

    Crowe frowned and asked: "Information asymmetry? How to say it."

    Hayes said: "The Chinese know everything about the composition of our fleet, the performance of the ships, and even the materials of the warships. I suspect that many of the things they know are probably extremely confidential. For example, in the red and blue battles  During the confrontation exercise, their missiles 'hit' our Aegis cruiser. We made a war situation assessment, but the Chinese navy's staff immediately raised objections. They said that the Tikang superstructure was made of aluminum.  The high-explosive effect of their anti-ship missiles is very good and will definitely cause a very serious fire and cause greater secondary destruction. In addition, they even know that our cruiser has added 300 tons to balance the weight of the phased array radar.  Useless counterweights and ballast iron, and said that if there is serious flooding, these things will become a burden for the ship to sink. Our director thinks that these points they pointed out are very reasonable, and they also want to give our young man a slap.  So we adopted their opinions.¡±

    Crowe's face was a little livid, and he pressed one hand on the armrest of the sofa unconsciously, saying: "This shows that the Chinese are not as respectful and harmless as they appear on the surface. Like the Soviets, they are sparing no effort to  Mining our military intelligence, and even many of their achievements, may be based on American wisdom.¡±

    Hayes nodded and said: "So, I hope you will go back and explain to the Pentagon and Langley (CIA) that you can dig out Chinese spies in North America as much as possible, because the damage they bring to the United States is likely to be no less than an atomic bomb."  ¡±

    "I know," Crowe said. He thought for a while and asked again: "I know that many factors in our defeat came from the lads' laziness and underestimation of the enemy. They also paid the price for this. However, please be more careful.  Tell me, what do you think our chances of winning will be if we really start a war with our 'quasi-ally' on the high seas?"

    Hayes smiled, showing full confidence: "First of all, I think our failure in the exercise is partially representative, but it does not represent all. It does not mean that the Chinese defeated us twice, which means they are stronger than us.  , which is ridiculous.¡±

    "This is inevitable."

    Hayes added: "It can be said that our plot setting at the beginning was particularly beneficial to the Chinese Navy, and the Chinese Navy has obviously done a lot of work on this, so that they can calmly follow the plan  route, using our own intelligence expertise to form a certain comparative advantage for us.

    And I have toAs mentioned, China¡¯s naval strategy, as they themselves say, is to maintain control of the coastal areas of the marginal sea, that is, parts of the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.  So their navy relies heavily on the air cover provided by shore-based aviation. Oh, indeed, they have an amphibious assault ship that can pretend to be an aircraft carrier, but it only has a dozen aircraft at most, the speed is not good, and the strength is quite limited.

    So, we have seen the Chinese navy develop this kind of naval power that has absolute control over offshore areas, but after entering the high seas and oceans, it is worryingly weak.  There are no large aircraft carriers and no nuclear submarines. Even their destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines are very impressive, but they have no advantage at all against our aircraft carrier battle group.

    Our F-14s and F-18s can find them at a distance of eight to nine hundred kilometers, and then carry out a devastating strike. Their AIP submarines cannot easily break through our anti-submarine network, and they are even less impressive compared to the Seawolf class.  The 052A destroyer has certain regional air defense capabilities, but in comparison, its ability to resist saturation strikes is relatively weak.

    From the above analysis, the Chinese navy does not have the ability to launch a large-scale decisive naval battle with any powerful country such as the United States and the Soviet Union on the high seas and oceans.  "

    Crowe nodded and breathed a sigh of relief, and then said: "But there is another point that is a bit worrying. You said they are not capable of fighting against the United States and the Soviet Union, but what about allies like the United Kingdom and France?"

    Hayes pondered for a moment and said: "Looking at the battlefield environment, if it is in a neutral ocean area or European waters, Britain and France have a greater chance of winning. If it is on the sea near China, Britain and France have no chance of victory."

    Crowe naturally asked: "What about us, what chance do we have of entering their marginal sea? We must know that Taiwan is also facing the threat from China, and we may need to intervene."

    Hayes rolled his eyes and said: "Sir, strategically speaking, it is impossible for us to position China as a quasi-ally, and then fall out with them because they sent troops to Formosa. Which one, Taiwan or China, is more meaningful for containing the Soviet Union? This  It's self-evident. Well, from a purely technical perspective, we can win, but the consequence of winning is that our navy may suffer relatively large losses, because China has a certain size of new-generation fighter fleet, oh.  , they still have 70 F-14s. Unless we mobilize three to four aircraft carrier battle groups, dispatch a large number of Marines, and a large combined fleet with hundreds of ships, we will not be able to suppress the Chinese navy. This is reality. I am not  Don¡¯t feel ashamed to say this. In addition, what are the benefits of defeating the Chinese navy with heavy losses? This comes back to strategy. I won¡¯t say more, but the Soviets will definitely be happy.¡±

    Crowe said worriedly: "We don't want to create an enemy for ourselves just because we want to tie the hands of the Soviet Union."

    Hayes added: "Don't worry, China is a country with domestic problems that are no simpler than the Soviet Union. Most of its billions of people are in poverty. I believe that their eagerness to develop their military power has reached a dangerous point. The subsequent growth will  It will definitely slow down, otherwise they may collapse before the Soviet Union.¡±

    Crowe disagreed and said: "One billion people can be a burden or a wealth. At least I know that some Chinese products have begun to enter the American market. If they are more closely connected with the free world, they may slowly  Entering an era of relative affluence while providing more military spending for their armies.¡±

    "Well, maybe. However, I am more optimistic that when they contact us, their people will see the good life and the huge gap within themselves, which will shake the leadership and legitimacy of their CPC regime. The best consequence is  , the Soviet Union is finished, China has also begun to democratize, they are trapped in their own disputes, and they are unable to pose any threat to us. "

    Crowe smiled and said: "At least now we still need this country to maintain certain minions that can hurt the Soviet Union and make the Soviet Union afraid. As for what to do in the future, the people in Washington must have their plans."

    The two of them put on their military caps and came out of the office, and walked to the officers' mess together to prepare for a meal.  Hayes put his hands in his trouser pockets and said with emotion: "But to put things into perspective, we should also learn something from this country that is a latecomer in the navy. At least their fighting spirit is worth learning from the young men who have slowly lost their ambition.  Oh, in addition, although the discipline of the communist country is a bit excessive, there is no army that does not like such soldiers. Maybe we should make the sailors more honest. "

    Crowe said: "Don't let your sailors complain that you are persecuting human rights."
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