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0461 Dilemma

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    Xu Yi thought about all aspects of the village, but in the end he felt that only agriculture, forestry, or animal husbandry, which were more closely related to the livelihood of the village, were the things he should really consider.  Except for some young people in the village who couldn't bear the poverty, they simply left their hometown and went to work in other places.  But after all, because I have no skills, I can only rely on physical strength to make a living, but I can still make more money than farming.  Most of the remaining people still face the loess and turn their backs to the sky, making a living by digging in the soil and watching the sky.  Although the per capita land is much more than that of villages and towns outside the mountains, most of the fields in the village are thin fields and the yield is not high.  In particular, the depressions below reservoir dams are particularly susceptible to disasters.  In addition, food prices have not been very good in recent years, so relying only on farming can, at best, support the family.  Not to mention getting rich, even becoming well-off is difficult.  Food is the most important thing for the people. No matter when it comes, food is a necessity for social development.  Although prices are relatively stable, after all, we still have to face the current situation of liberalization of food prices, and we also have to be impacted by the market.  With China¡¯s accession to the WTO, food prices are increasingly affected by fluctuations in global food prices.  Under the impact of imported low-priced grains, the trend of local grain prices falling will inevitably increase.  Comparing international and domestic food prices, it is not difficult to find that food prices will continue to fall in the long term in the future.  According to the trend in recent years, only corn has increased in price.  This is due to the rapid development of the breeding industry and the new energy industry, which has increased the demand for raw material corn.  The prices of the remaining items such as wheat, soybeans and rice have not kept up with the pace of the currency super-issuance. Even the soybean planting industry has shown a shrinking situation under the impact of imported cheap bean feed. Now even the three northeastern provinces are shrinking.  There are not many soybeans grown anymore.  Xu Yi reported to school at the beginning of the year and then returned to the Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital. When he returned to the village, he heard that several people wanted to convert paddy fields back to dry fields to grow corn.  He is also a little worried that converting dry fields to paddy fields is okay, but converting paddy fields to dry fields will lead to problems such as soil compaction due to changes in soil properties in a few years, which will greatly affect the yield.  This kind of blind change comes and goes, and it's okay to grit your teeth and push through it in a year or two.  But if the industry adjusts at that time and corn prices are cut, will it be changed back? ?????????????????????????? However, until the time of transplanting, they didn¡¯t make any movement. It seems that they are not ready to make trouble this year, but they just don¡¯t know what will happen in the future.  Xu Yi is not averse to the world. He has lived in rural areas for more than ten or twenty years since he was a child, and he understands their difficulties.  Although planting paddy fields seems to be more profitable, compared with dry fields, paddy fields consume more labor, chemical fertilizers, diesel, etc., and it is not that easy to sell grain during the harvest season.  Especially in recent years, food prices have basically not risen much. On the contrary, contract fees, fertilizers, labor, etc. have been rising steadily. ?? Take rice transplanting as an example. In the past, hiring someone to transplant rice seedlings cost 30 to 50 yuan a day. Now, during the farming season, hiring someone to patch seedlings costs more than 200 yuan a day. ????????????????????????????? If it is all done by hand, a good hand will only be able to plant more than one acre of land in a day at most. If you include seed planting and chemical fertilizers, how much of this acre of land will be left?  Especially for farmers who have no one at home and no cars, it will be difficult to feed themselves even if they don't grow enough crops, not to mention that if there is a disaster, it will be a problem for the family to buy food and clothing.  Moreover, the cost of farming is not low. If there are continuous disasters, the land will really not be affordable.  Income remains unchanged and production costs increase.  To put it another way, if all people are hired, the net income from rice farming is lower than that from corn farming. Even if you do it yourself, the extra money you earn is not enough for hard work.  ?Looking at it this way, it¡¯s like the place below the dam at home, the terrain is relatively low-lying, and the surrounding mountain water and the water leaking from the dam are all flowing there.  Therefore, the ground temperature there is very low all year round, which seriously affects crop growth.  "Even if it rains continuously for two days, it will look completely white. Not to mention that the seedlings will be submerged in the water, and even children can swim there. How can we plant on this land?  Therefore, even if the young people in the village cannot get land when they reach adulthood, no one cares about the large low-lying land. They would rather go out to work than stay and dig in the soil.  Nowadays, most of the farmers in the village are older, and these people can farm for a few more years.  If they really can¡¯t do anything anymore, how will they make a living?  Therefore, if we want to increase income, the traditional planting model in the village must also change.  Thinking about it now, Xu Yi feels that it is more appropriate for his village to develop industries such as fruit tree planting and breeding based on local conditions.  Although these may not make much money, it is still much better than burying oneself in farming.  As living standards improve, the market for these daily necessities and non-necessities will only become larger and larger, so as long as the product is good, there is no need to worry about selling it.  Although these things are also affected by joining the WTO,?Unlike commodities such as grain, which are easy to store and transport, whether it is fruits or livestock products, the cost of transportation and preservation remains high, and they are more likely to be subject to customs control. Overall, the cost of most fruits is still much more expensive than local production.  .  The locally grown varieties have much lower storage and transportation costs, so they have a certain price advantage. The relative profit margin is larger than that of imported fruits, and they are also relatively better able to withstand the impact of the market.  Even if the quality is good, it is not impossible to compete in the international market!  ¡°So many hills in my village are abandoned, which is actually a waste of great resources.  Although due to human factors decades ago, these hills have suffered from soil erosion to some extent, some of which are quite serious, but I think that as long as you are willing to invest, most of the hills can still be transformed to make them suitable for planting fruit trees.  Of course, this is just my own idea. If I really want to do this, I have to see what the people in the village think.  "But it will be difficult to implement this. After all, the events in the early years are still vivid in our minds, and I am afraid that the people in the village will inevitably talk about the change of the tree.  ¡°And no matter how reliable your idea is, it¡¯s not that simple to actually do it. Planting fruit trees is not just about buying a few saplings, planting them, waiting for them to bear fruit and selling them for money.  It can be said that there are other factors that restrict the planting of fruit trees in the village: such as input costs, daily management, business risks, etc.  Taken together, the most influential of these constraints is still the issue of sales.  In the early years, when the reform and opening up had just begun, the fruit planting and breeding industry should be said to be in short supply. As long as it could be shipped out, most of it could still be sold at a good price.  My village should be said to have caught up with the good times, but the leaky house was exposed to continuous rain. The combination of various factors led to the final tragedy.  A good agricultural promotion turned into an anticlimactic political show, leaving a mess in the village.  Xu Yi was also scratching his head a little. He was not familiar with this thing and had no clue. How to solve this sales problem was difficult.  ¡°If we can¡¯t solve this sales problem and we just go ahead with it regardless, the outcome will probably be a repeat of the story from years ago. I¡¯ll just wait for the villagers to stab me in the back.  ¡° If you really expect your own small store to solve the sales problem, that¡¯s just a joke within a joke.  I don¡¯t even know what will happen after opening, not to mention how much fruit can be digested no matter how good the business is, this is still unknown - but it will definitely be less than the output of the village.  What I can think of is that now that we have joined the WTO, it can be said that domestic fruit sales will inevitably see a trend of global procurement.  It can be said that as long as you have money, you can basically buy all kinds of fruits all year round. It can be said that the seasonal supply of fruits no longer exists.  Not only that, now even fruit sellers are engaging in chain operations and implementing group purchasing.  There is no doubt that this has also allowed them to occupy an increasing share of the market. Whether it is to combat competition or improve efficiency, they will always control many more purchase channels than before, not only focusing on domestic products.  On the production area.  What's more, I have also seen news that they, like supermarkets, contract or purchase large tracts of land to build fruit bases to provide their own products.  This is undoubtedly a powerful tool to reduce costs and capture market share.  Moreover, locally grown products inevitably have problems such as seasonality, centralized marketing, and even low yield and fruit quality.  Therefore, it is obvious that supply-side imbalances will continue to increase even with the advancement of rural reform.  For example, fruits, in fact, it is foreseeable that, like agricultural products, they will gradually become a place where predators wield the big stick of capital to conquer cities and territories.  As far as agricultural products are concerned, now that there is no unified purchase and marketing, the prices of agricultural products have been impacted by the market.  After the implementation of the household contract responsibility system, although it increased the enthusiasm for production and reflected distribution according to work, it also reduced the number of agricultural workers into parts.  Although the fragmented agricultural model is flexible in transformation, it has basically lost the ability to become bigger and stronger.  This is not only due to capital weakness, but also due to the inability to control channels.  The isolated farmers cannot even grasp the market demand in a timely manner and can only be at the mercy of the market. In the end, they end up with the tragic result that whatever they grow cannot be sold and whatever they raise is worthless.  And merchants, by mastering the channels, will undoubtedly have more and more market pricing power.  So even if all the fruit on the tree is rotten, you still avoid the fruit in the supermarket - for fear that you won't be able to pay for it if it gets damaged.  ¡°You can get whatever you want cheaply, and you can buy everything cheaply¡± is the advertisement of the two-yuan store on the street, but the reality is an era of ¡°everything you can buy is cheap, and everything you buy is expensive¡±.  If you encounter high-end products that are truly scarce or hyped,Goods, even cabbage and potatoes, are so expensive that they make you doubt your life.  The economic principle of capital being king has completely eliminated farmers. At best, they can only become a link in the industrial chain selling cheap labor under the gimmick of "company + farmers".  So, I really want the people in the village to change their farming model, and really make money and live a good life.  First of all, I have to find a way to solve the most critical sales problem on the line of production, supply and marketing, so that we can break the price monopoly and really allow the villagers to achieve the goal of increasing production and income.
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