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Text Chapter 591: Prepare to face the most difficult time

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    Having said this, I looked at Li Yanping and Guo Bingxun who were a little confused.  Yang Zhen, who knew what they were thinking, said: "Lao Li, Lao Guo, do you think the Germans, who have almost occupied all of Europe, will let go of the Soviet Union, which has always been regarded as a thorn in their side and has the richest resources in Europe?  ?¡±

    Seeing both men shaking their heads, Yang Zhen sighed and said: "The German army has the best staff in the world, as well as the best officers and soldiers in the world. This was reflected in its campaign across Europe.  It has been shown that their use of strategy and tactics has almost reached the peak that an army can achieve.¡±

    "The true combat effectiveness of the Soviet army has been demonstrated through last year's Battle of Nomonhan and the Soviet attack on Finland. The quality of its officers, especially the quality of command officers and staff officers, is simply much worse than that of the Germans.  Faced with an army with a population of just over a million and an active force of less than tens of thousands, the loss of troops will be hundreds of thousands. "

    "With the precise tactical vision of the Germans, it is impossible not to see the meaning contained in it. I don't know whether the suppression of counter-revolutionaries really purified the Soviet army, but I know that this kind of indiscriminate killing is very harmful to an army.  The harm may not be visible at ordinary times, but the consequences are quite serious on the battlefield.¡±

    "Although the Soviet army may achieve final victory by relying on the Soviet Union's land area and huge human resources. However, I feel that in the early days of the Soviet-German war, a major rout of the Soviet army was absolutely inevitable. One army was smashed to pieces.  It takes time for an army that has lost its brain to mature again.¡±

    "It will take time for the Soviet generals to change the stubbornness in Stalin's character from immaturity to maturity. This time may not be too long, but for us, this period of time is a quite severe test. The Soviet army is too overwhelmed to take care of itself.  , it is very likely that they will not take our feelings into consideration.¡±

    "Therefore, we must be prepared for foreign aid channels to be cut off in the early stages of the Soviet-German war. We must even deal with the fact that the Soviets are within the attack range of the Japanese navy in the so-called coastal border areas in the east. We do not want to face being attacked from both sides.  strategic situation and proactively cut off our external channels.¡±

    "At that time, the Americans want to continue to assist us. But without transportation lines, how can those materials be transported in? Not only us, but even the battlefield in Guan Nei will face the same situation. Moreover, the Americans are not ready to completely fight with the Japanese  When they fall out, what they can support us will be limited, and the scale will be controlled. At least until the two countries really start fighting, their assistance to us will only be at a low level."

    "Our real opportunity is not now, but after the full-scale war between the United States and Japan breaks out. Once the Japanese and Americans enter a full-scale war, in order to reduce the pressure on the Japanese army, they will truly fully assist us. But now it is just  We just hope that we can contain the momentum of the Japanese army going south, disperse the strength of the Japanese army, and reduce the pressure on the United States and Britain in Southeast Asia. "

    After Yang Zhen finished speaking, Li Yanping and Guo Bingxun did not refute his analysis.  Perhaps Li Yanping doesn't know much about the international situation.  But for Guo Bingxun, who is in charge of intelligence, he agrees with Yang Zhen's words.  The contradiction between Japan and the United States seems to be great now, but it has not yet completely intensified.

    However, in Guo Bingxun's view, as long as the Japanese army does not stop its southward expansion and completely dispels its southward momentum, it will be difficult for the two countries to really sit down and negotiate.  The United States has now begun to impose an oil embargo on Japan.  As an island country, Japan, which was founded with a navy, is inseparable from oil, a modern military machine.

    Unless they are willing to comply with the requirements of the Americans and withdraw their troops from mainland China.  However, this condition is really difficult to accept for Japan, which has always been greedy and never vomits out whatever it eats.  For Japan, which mainly consumes oil and supplies products from the United States, the American oil embargo can be described as a fatal blow.  Without oil and its products, Japan's modern equipment would be nothing more than a pile of scrap metal.

    Facing the imminent interruption of oil supply, the mainland and its occupied areas have no oil resources except the Soviet Union¡¯s small oil field on Sakhalin Island.  In order to seize Southeast Asia, which is rich in oil reserves, Japan's momentum of going south is simply impossible to end.  Unless the Americans end their oil embargo against Japan.

    Only a fool would believe that the Japanese only occupied northern Vietnam simply to cut off China¡¯s foreign aid channels.  Although Vietnam's foreign aid channel from Haiphong to China's Guangxi is very important, it is only one of them. And because Guangxi is very close to the Japanese-occupied area of ??Guangdong, a large part of the Yunnan-Vietnam Railway is within the bombing range of Japanese bombers.

    Although this route is also very important, its importance has declined since the Burma Highway has been opened to traffic.  The Japanese army wants to completely cut off China's external resourcesIn order to obtain the capital channel, it is not only necessary to occupy northern Vietnam.  Unless they completely break up with the British and capture Burma.  Otherwise, it would be impossible for them to completely cut off China's foreign aid channels.

    And the Japanese don¡¯t have that many bombers to cut off this lifeline to the rear.  Although the Japanese army had occupied Haiphong and completely cut off the Yunnan-Vietnam Railway, the nearly 20,000 trucks on the Yunnan-Burma Highway still maintained the situation of China's war of resistance.  It supports China¡¯s determination to fight on.

    Occupying Southeast Asia, which has now almost become a terra nullius, can not only obtain the rich oil, tin ore and other strategic resources that the Japanese army urgently needs, but also completely cut off China's lifeline.  For the Japanese army, the temptation was obviously much stronger than attacking the Soviet Union northward and occupying the barbaric land in Siberia with nothing but wood.

    For Americans, except for the Philippines, which is their own colony, the rest of Southeast Asia is the colony of Britain, France and the Netherlands.  Throw it away or not, the harm to yourself is not that great.  But the Americans will never tolerate the Japanese acquiring the rich strategic resources there.

    No one is willing to hand a sharp knife to a wolf that has bared its teeth.  Smart Americans would never do such stupid things.  Therefore, Americans have always regarded the Japanese's southward momentum as a threat to themselves.  Especially when the war situation in Western Europe is already very unfavorable to its traditional ally, Britain.

    "If the Japanese invade Siberia, which is still a barren land with only forests except for ice and snow, I believe that the Americans will not only not give them aid, but will definitely be happy to see it happen.  Because the United States does not have a favorable impression of the Soviet Union as much as Japan, a hungry wolf raised by itself and the British.

    Of course, at this time, Guo Bingxun, including the Soviets themselves, did not know that the Ob River Basin in Western Siberia contained the Tyumen Oilfield, the largest oil field in later generations and one of the largest oil fields in the Soviet Union.  Its maximum annual output reaches 400 million tons, far exceeding the Baku oil field in the Soviet Union's current Transcaucasus region.  If the Tyumen Oilfield was discovered in advance, I am afraid that the Japanese, who are always accustomed to taking advantage of the situation, would not mind stabbing the Soviet Union in the back during its most difficult time.

    So Guo Bingxun¡¯s judgment is very consistent with Yang Zhen¡¯s on this point.  They all believe that under the situation where the momentum of the Japanese going south is already obvious, unless the Japanese army gives up the resources in Southeast Asia that are almost within easy reach for the Japanese army.  Otherwise, war between the United States and Japan is inevitable.

    Especially for Guo Bingxun, who studied in France, he believes that Japan and Germany have concluded the so-called Entente and have become allies.  A war between the United States and Japan is even more inevitable.  The reason is simple. Although Americans are geographically located on the American continent, their roots are in Europe.  Although the United States is a multi-ethnic country, they were once a British colony.  Moreover, the mainstream figures occupying the upper class are all from the European continent.

    Although there has been some discord with the United Kingdom in history after independence, for Americans who have always been realistic, the United Kingdom has always been their traditional ally.  From the beginning of World War I to the present, the two countries have both fought and cooperated.  In international relations, cooperation is far greater than struggle.

    Americans will never sit back and watch Britain defeat, because the emergence of a strong and unified Europe is not in their interests.  On the European battlefield, just like World War I, the United States entered the war sooner or later.  The Germans are very aware of this American mentality.  So even if the Japanese don't want to offend the United States, their allies will force them to join the war sooner or later.

    Guo Bingxun knew very well that if the Americans would have a battle with the Japanese sooner or later, as long as his troops still had the strength, they could still defeat the Japanese.  In international relations, it is customary to say that the enemy of an enemy is a friend, and Americans will definitely increase their aid to themselves.  to distract the Japanese.

    Regarding Yang Zhen¡¯s words, although I don¡¯t necessarily think that the Soviet Union and Germany will really fight.  Because the relationship between the two countries is still very close, the German-made second-hand bombers transferred from Jiangbei are evidence.  But more than two years of fighting together made Guo Bingxun know that the young commander in front of him still had a very accurate vision on certain things.

    Since he said that Su De will have a battle sooner or later, he must be prepared for the worst.  Then there is absolutely nothing wrong with following his words.  And even if the Soviet-German war does not break out, it is not a bad thing to prepare for many things in advance and make more contingency plans.

    As for Li Yanping, his judgment on the international situation is far less experienced than Guo Bingxun.  But he had an understanding that Yang Zhen always took a long-term view when doing things, and what he did was only good for the development of the army and would never be harmful.  As long as you do what he says, you'll never go wrong.

    Although Li Yanping and Guo Bingxun didn¡¯t say it explicitly when they met, they? They agreed with what he said, and Yang Zhen still felt somewhat proud in his heart.  His pride does not come from his so-called ability and judgment, but from the fact that he has such a harmonious and unified leadership team.

    I am proud to have such a political commissar who has great trust in me, and I am proud to have such a capable assistant.  Yang Zhen saw an extra army in later generations, and the differences caused by the discord between the military and the government.  I can have such a political commissar as my team and such a capable chief of staff to cooperate with my work.
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