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- When Herzendorf came to power, he faced a mess that would make any politician despair.
According to later published information, in 1986, the military expenditure of the Second German Reich accounted for 45% of the government's fiscal revenue, equivalent to 21% of the gross national product that year. This can only be verified. , that is, formal military expenditures. If expenses allocated through other methods are included, the proportion of military expenditures in the imperial budget must be more than 60/60
?Obviously, this is a huge burden that no government can bear
You must know that even during the war, war expenditures accounted for only 60/60 of the imperial fiscal expenditures, and they only exceeded 60/60 in 1943 and 1944, and in 1955 In year 0, it dropped to 30/30, basically returning to pre-war levels.
Such high military spending in peacetime means government bankruptcy
The problem is, the imperial government is not bankrupt
Obviously, in order to maintain huge military expenditures, all the imperial government can do is to increase taxes and obtain social resources by increasing the size of the deficit.
Of course, this also means a serious devaluation of the currency
In a market economy country, the consequences of severe currency devaluation are extremely serious and will definitely lead to social unrest
In fact, before Herzendorf came to power, the imperial government had already adopted maximum government price limits, that is, mandatory administrative decrees to limit prices.
The problem is that these methods only treat the symptoms but not the root cause.
Although this method can allow the people of the empire to obtain cheap goods in the short term, it cannot be sustained at all and will lead to economic collapse sooner or later.
This is very clearly reflected in the empire¡¯s grain trade
The Second German Empire has never been a major grain-producing country, and before the outbreak of World War I, it had already become a stock-importer of grain. During the two world wars, the number one problem of the Second German Empire was grain, that is, domestic production. The food simply cannot feed all the citizens. This is exactly the case. During the two world wars, the Second German Empire was the first to implement rationing, and it was the most stringent rationing system. For example, during World War I, the imperial authorities once reduced the rationing quota. to the minimum
After the war, the empire¡¯s food problem improved, but it did not undergo fundamental changes.
This is why through the annexation of other German countries and the baby boom that occurred after the war, the population of the Second German Empire surged by tens of millions within ten years after the war. In contrast, the empire's food production did not increase accordingly. People¡¯s food consumption has increased sharply
It is precisely because of this that the Second German Reich seized Ukraine and refused to let it go
It can be said that it was the food from Ukraine and Eastern European countries like Romania and Bulgaria that fed the Second German Empire after the war.
The problem is that after the oil crisis, the way of importing food has changed a lot
Before this, because the Chinese dollar was equivalent to gold, the Reichsmark only needed to maintain a fixed exchange rate with the Chinese dollar, and its currency value could be guaranteed. The Second German Empire could also increase the issuance of Reichsmarks and obtain grain from Ukraine and other countries. China imports grain
To put it bluntly, it means exchanging banknotes for food
When Huayuan breaks away from gold, this situation will be difficult to maintain.
To put it simply, the value of currency is no longer measured by its relationship with gold, but by its actual purchasing power, that is, goods have become the protagonist in national trade.
This means that the Second German Reich could not purchase more food by increasing currency issuance
The reason is that increasing currency issuance will lead to currency devaluation, which will lead to a reduction in currency purchasing power, but the final goods purchased will not increase.
Of course, the Second German Reich did not have no other options
That is, Ukraine and other major grain exporting countries are all allies of the Second German Reich, and they rely heavily on the Second German Reich for national security. In national politics, they follow the Second German Reich. Therefore, the Second German Reich can pass IOUs. way to get food
To put it bluntly, it means directly importing grain from Ukraine and other countries in the name of the country
Of course, it is impossible and impossible for the imperial government to pay cash in the grain trade. All it can give is bonds issued by the government.
The problem is, bonds are even more unreliable than currencies
To put it bluntly, countries such as Ukraine cannot use the bonds issued by the Second German Reich to purchase goods, and the value of these bonds may return to zero at any time.
Before Herzendorf came to power, countries such as Ukraine had already announced that they would no longer accept imperial bonds in grain trade.
Of course, at this point, the Second German Empire also had a choice
This is, using barter to obtain food
To put it simply, it means using the goods that Ukraine and other countries need in exchange for the food produced in these countries.
The question is, how many goods can the Second German Reich provide that other countries need?
You must know that under the tremendous pressure of the Cold War, the Second German Empire gradually relaxed various restrictions on the industrial development of its allies. For example, after the end of the war, the Second German Empire made it clear that all countries that had been invaded by Russia were not allowed to Develop heavy industry. However, by the early 1970s, the authorities of the Second German Empire had to abolish this regulation, allowing these countries to develop heavy industry, and later expanded it to include military industry.
To put it bluntly, in order to confront China, the Second German Reich had to concentrate the power of the entire alliance group
The result is that among the alliance groups with the Second German Empire as the core, the most powerful is the heavy industry system with the military industry as the core
Of course, the Second German Reich was no exception
??Obviously, when conducting barter trade, the Second German Empire could only trade arms, steel and other heavy industrial products
The problem is that what Ukraine and other food-producing countries need is not arms and steel.
To put it bluntly, countries that are willing to barter with the Second German Empire need light industrial products and electrical industrial products.
?Obviously, the Second German Empire also needed light industrial products
When Herzendorf came to power, the Second German Reich had already encountered a food crisis. That is, Ukraine and other countries refused to accept the food trade agreement proposed by the Second German Reich, and clearly required the Second German Reich to either take hard currency or use the other party's payment. exchange of goods
At that time, negotiations with Ukraine and other grain-producing countries had reached a dead end.
According to information later disclosed, before Herzendorf came to power, the German General Staff formulated a military action plan to overthrow the Ukrainian regime.
In other words, if the negotiations end in failure, food-producing countries such as Ukraine will be controlled through military occupation.
?Obviously, this is definitely not a good thing
After Herzendorf came to power, he not only immediately put an end to the military's stupid behavior, but also first visited Ukraine and directly informed the Ukrainian president that if Ukraine refused to export food to the Second German Reich, then German-Ukrainian relations would be devastated. And he couldn't stop things from getting worse
Of course, Herzendorf also brought a gift to the Ukrainian President
This is that as long as Ukraine is willing to make concessions in the grain trade, that is, to accept the trade payment method provided by the Second German Reich, he will guarantee to settle all payments and repay all debts within his term, ensuring that Ukraine will not be in the grain trade. losses in trade
Herzendorf¡¯s guarantee bought him three years, that is, Germany and Ukraine signed a three-year grain trade agreement
The fact is that what Herzendorf needs and lacks most is time
More importantly, for the reforms he implemented, three years is obviously not enough. If nothing else, it would be impossible for the German army to withdraw from the Balkans within three years.
In addition, Herzendorf¡¯s reforms are unlikely to achieve immediate results.
To make a simple analogy, the Second German Reich is like a car traveling at a speed of one kilometer per hour on the highway, and Herzendorf is the driver of this locomotive. Even if he has stepped on the brakes, It is impossible for the car to stop immediately, let alone turn around immediately.
Herzendorf has stepped on the brakes, but the car is still moving forward due to the effect of inertia
This is that while Herzendorf was working hard to implement reforms, the Second German Empire was still pursuing the basic national policy of all-out confrontation with China.
Under this influence, the empire¡¯s arms expenditures remained high.
As a politician, Herzendorf knew very well that the empire's armament plan was related to the interests of many people. If he immediately took action on armaments, it would not only be affected by tens of thousands of imperial soldiers, but also those who have gained in armaments construction. Arms group that has made huge profits
¡°Obviously, Herzendorf¡¯s political life cannot last long if he offends these interest groups.
Reform is not a revolution, it is a gradual process. Therefore, Herzendorf did not dare to slam on the brakes and needed enough time to stop the imperial chariot.
The problem is that pressure from the outside world, that is, the threat from China, makes it difficult for the imperial tank to stop
¡°Contradictory to this, the serious domestic environment requires this tank to stop immediately, otherwise a general outbreak of internal conflicts will be enough to disintegrate the tank.
It is undeniable that Herzendorf has made a lot of efforts, even at the expense of the empire¡¯s strategic nuclear power
"It's a pity that his efforts were not enough, or the efforts allowed by the conditions at the time were not enough, and the imperial tank continued to move forward.
For Herzendorf, in addition to domestic motivation, reform requires a good external environment.
At the end of 1986, after visiting Ukraine and other allies, Herzendorf paid an official visit to China before Christmas
At that time, this visit was regarded by the news media as an ice-breaking trip for Sino-German diplomatic relations.
However, the actual meaning is not that simple. Welcome, your support is my biggest motivation.
¡Ë
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