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Text Chapter 3716: The first step of cheating

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    ¡°In 2003, I noticed that scholars and experts began to remind the public and investors sporadically that the real estate market had begun to have a bubble.¦çMany people did not recognize this, and even after a long time, many  People still think this is simply unfounded nonsense. But this insight into the bubble of the real estate industry has been fully confirmed today. I studied the whole story of such a subprime mortgage crisis and its root causes, and found that this is  The collapse of the real estate bubble was inevitable after the collapse of the IT bubble in 2001. Why is it inevitable? Because after the collapse of the IT bubble and the collapse of the world's telecommunications industry, the United States as a whole was not affected too much. The United States as a whole is still the world's largest economy.  An excellent investment environment exists.

    But at that time, the U.S. stock market was no longer suitable for investment, at least not in a short period of time.  At this time, funds will definitely find other areas to invest. At this time, in order to prevent the stock market crash from affecting the real economy, the Federal Reserve adopted a very expansionary monetary policy in order to stimulate the economy.  They first announced that they would lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, from 6.5% to 6%, thus kicking off the U.S. interest rate cut.  Since then, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 13 times in a row, finally lowering the federal funds rate to a low of 1% in June 2003 and maintaining it for more than a year.  Under the guidance of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. financial system is in a very loose environment, various interest rates have fallen, and high-risk financial instruments have begun to be widely used.

    The federal funds rate of 1% has reached its lowest level in 45 years!  Many friends in front of the TV may not know what the federal funds rate means. Let me explain it.  The federal funds rate in the United States is actually the interest rate in the interbank lending market, the most important of which is the overnight lending rate.  That is to say, the interest rate at which commercial banks lend some funds to their peers, that is, banks borrow money from each other.  It¡¯s like we don¡¯t have any cash in our pockets, so we borrow some from our neighbors or colleagues.  Such changes in interest rates can sensitively reflect the capital surplus and shortage among banks. The Fed's targeting and adjusting of interbank lending rates can directly affect the capital costs of commercial banks, and pass the capital surplus and shortage in the interbank lending market to industrial and commercial enterprises, thereby affecting consumption,  Investment and the National Economy.  "

    "Specifically how the federal funds rate stimulates the rise in housing prices, I won't go into the complicated process. What I can tell you here is that the decline in interest rates has led to a decline in housing loan interest rates. In housing loans  In the market, loosened money has led to a continued decline in mortgage interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate fell from 8.1% at the end of 2000 to 5.8% in 2003. The 1-year adjustable mortgage interest rate also dropped from 7.0% at the end of 2001 to  3.8% in 2003. It is worth noting that in June 2004, the Federal Reserve once again adjusted its macroeconomic control direction and raised interest rates 13 times in a row in the 14 months to August 2005, pulling the federal funds rate from 1% to  4.25%. Although mortgage interest rates have increased, they still remain at a relatively low level. From this point of view, we can also see that in 2004, the Federal Reserve also realized that there may be a bubble behind this real estate.  Risk, but they estimate the risk is not great"

    After saying this, Jia Hongjian's posture, momentum, and attitude did not look like a guest coming to be interviewed. Instead, he looked like an expert who had been invited to talk about the subprime mortgage crisis and conduct an in-depth analysis of the underlying causes.  It was as if this talk show suddenly became his one-man show!  This point is actually caused by the host and the others temporarily encountering an unexpected situation and suddenly not knowing how to answer the call.  Such a program was originally a recorded program, which means it was not broadcast live.  Logically speaking.  In fact, at such a time, the host can ask the director to call for a jam.  Then they stopped to discuss something.  But such a thing is not necessary, and the director did not call for a jam.  At the same time, for such a recorded program, it does not mean that after three hours of filming, the complete content must be broadcast for three hours. Various edits can also be made in the middle.  Therefore, the hosts who knew that editing could be done were not in a hurry. Instead, they let Jia Hongjian speak on his own while they were actively considering how to arrange the following interview questions and content.  But they don't know it.  The relationship between Jia Hongjian and their company would not allow large sections of his speech to be edited out!  He, Jia Hongjian, came here just to be an expert!

    Didn¡¯t Jia Hongjian come here to show off?  Wouldn't it be better to rely on pretentiousness to stimulate the box office of his movie?  So why are you pretending to be an expert now?  What does this have to do with box office?  Don¡¯t worry, keep reading and you¡¯ll find out!  At that time, Jia Hongjian began to analyze little by little that after funds from the global capital flowed out of the stock market, they flowed into the U.S. real estate market.  And because of low interest rates.  This leads to an increase in the number of people buying houses, which in turn leads to an increase in housing prices.  The existence of low interest rates has led to the increase in housing prices. In fact, the increase in interest rates has not been much, so it has an impact on purchase intention.It's not big.  "According to statistics, from 2000 to 2004, the median housing price in the U.S. rose by 33%! A full one-third increase! But if a home buyer takes out a 30-year loan on a median-priced property, the monthly payment will be  However, the loan amount only increased from US$846 to US$876, an increase of only US$30! It can be said that low interest rates have become the main factor supporting high housing prices and high sales volume. Under such a situation, today's rising interest rates and falling housing prices will  It is not impossible that the wealth of a large number of families who bought houses after 2000 will shrink or even be cut in half! This will further encroach on the wealth that families could use for consumption, thus affecting the real economy even more!"

    After saying this, Jia Hongjian paused and said his final conclusion, "So after my research and judgment, such a subprime mortgage crisis is actually not just the collapse of the IT bubble in one, two or three years.  In the past, it was far from possible. It is estimated that by 2012 or even 2014, such a crisis may not be able to be overcome, and the entire world economy may even enter a trough of slow depression! I like the United States very much, I  I think the people here are very lovely, so I personally suggest that Americans, you may have to be a little more careful with your money starting from today. The situation in the future may not be so easy" After saying this, Jia Hong  He gradually closed his mouth, as if he had finished his lengthy conclusion.

    For such an expert-like speech, Jia Hongjian himself felt very satisfied.  anyway.  Didn't he want to show off before?  Don¡¯t you want to stimulate the box office growth of your own movies?  How come you are now speaking like an expert?  Because this in itself is a pre-emptive means and practice to stimulate the box office!  What do you say about this?  Because in fact, Jia Hongjian discovered through research that the worse the economic situation in the world, the more popular relatively cheap entertainment methods such as movies will be!  Why?  Because people don't dare to spend big money due to the bad economic situation, they can only spend small amounts of money for entertainment. They always want entertainment!  When the economic situation is good, they may just watch the movies they like, and at other times they party and date in various bars. All of this costs money.  And it¡¯s not cheap!  But because the economic situation is not very good, everyone is afraid that if they have money to spend today, they will not have money to spend tomorrow, so this large amount of entertainment expenditure will be reduced as much as possible, so maybe going to a party to date will become two people to go to the movies.  Got it!

    Such a pattern is really not the result of random research by Jia Hongjian, but it is absolutely based on theory. For example, the current strength of Hollywood and American movies is the result of the Great Depression in the United States!  That's right.  During the Great Depression in the United States in the 1930s, poor people of all kinds had no means of entertainment.  We could only choose movies, a method that was not very popular at the time, for entertainment, and this was how the American film industry rose!  Similarly, such a theory may have supporting examples in all walks of life. For example, in the tourism industry, when the economic situation is good, overseas travel will be popular.  But when the economic situation is not so good, it may take a step back and domestic tourism becomes popular. Why?

    It¡¯s not because people feel that the economic situation is not good and they should spend less money. If they spend too much money abroad, they might as well have fun at home!  And if the economic situation continues to deteriorate.  This domestic tourism will soon cool down, and then other cheaper forms of entertainment will become popular!  This is a chain of descents!  As an advanced species, human beings have developed to this day. They not only need food, clothing, housing and transportation, but also need social interaction, entertainment and relaxation.  When they feel that high-end entertainment is too expensive, they will gradually move to cheaper levels!  Hollywood movies became popular during the Great Depression, but now such a subprime mortgage crisis will make the U.S. economy sluggish and sluggish, which will definitely stimulate a new round of soaring box office in North America!  To be honest, for a movie like "Avatar" to have such a high box office in North America, maybe part of the reason is the economic situation. Mixed with various gimmicks, the box office is so high!

    ??If we go by historical development, it is estimated that the economic situation in the United States will not make people realize that it is a bit sluggish until the second half of the year or even 2008. By then, the box office of movies may slowly increase.  But at that time, Jia Hongjian¡¯s third Batman movie might have been offline!  Now that we know such a rule, how can we give up such an opportunity to make money while lying down to future generations?  Whoever copies such a great opportunity will be his!  So now, Jia Hongjian must first unleash his pessimism about the future on a large scale, in order to stimulate the American people's sense of crisis!  At this time, the movie released at the same time is their Batman Part 3, which is the most competitive. In such a situation, we scared one out of ten people, and let one of the ten people who were scared let go.  People can go to the cinema and watch our movies, thenReal estate can also rise a lot, right?  In the end, even if the box office only increased by tens of millions of dollars, we didn't pay much cost!  We just came to the TV station and said a few words casually. How could Jia Hongjian not be willing to do this at zero cost in exchange for tens of millions of box office?

    ¡° Even if this thing doesn¡¯t fool people into watching the movie, then we won¡¯t lose anything. At most, we will lose a little bit of saliva.  But if it succeeds, it will be a lot of money!  How could Jia Hongjian not do this kind of thing that guarantees profit without losing money?  And this is just the first step!  Next, he will have a series of tricks to attract consumers to watch his movies in the cinema!  (To be continued, please search Piaotian Literature. The novels will be better and updated faster!
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