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Text Chapter 70 Syllogism

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    "Yeah," Jiang Tiansheng said, "I mean, you know, they think something should be like this, then they say it is like this."

    "Yes, I understand what you want to say." Xia Xiang thought, if there is one person on earth who can repeat a clich¨¦ over and over again without knowing its clear meaning in his mind, that would be Jiang Tiansheng  , he also recited these magical words in a proud tone, thinking that they were the truths he had discovered.

    "What you really mean," Xia Xiang continued, "is how I understand it, you think we can't completely rely on President Zhiqiu's testimony? What you mean is that he heard a scream and then found a throat  The person who was cut had a razor next to him. It looked like the person had just committed suicide, so he assumed that he had just committed suicide. Then, the blood should still be flowing. So, he  Just convince yourself and insist that the blood was still flowing at that time. Is that what you think? "

    "Yes." Jiang Tiansheng said.

    "So, everyone thinks it's a suicide. But you and I, we know people very well, and we know that the testimony about the blood may be wrong, so it's still very likely that it was a murder. Isn't it?"

    "Oh, no - that's not what I meant," Jiang Tiansheng objected, "I feel this is 100% suicide."

    "Then what are you mumbling now? How obvious it is. If the man was killed at the two o'clock hand, Zhiqiu should be able to see the murderer. If he didn't see the murderer, then it would be suicide. Suicide and  No. It all depends on Chiaki's testimony, which states that the deceased died after two o'clock. Isn't that right?"

    Jiang Tiansheng thought about this surprising logic for a while, but in the end he still didn't notice whether this syllogism was an inversion of the premise and conclusion, the middle words were not spread out, or the premise itself was incorrect.  But his face visibly relaxed.

    "Of course." He said, "Yes, I understand. This is obviously suicide, and Zhiqiu's testimony can prove this. So he should still be right."

    Xia thought, this deformed three-part logic is even worse than the previous one.  There is no way a man who can come to such a conclusion can come up with any tricks.  He constructed a new syllogism for himself:

    The murderer is not a fool.

    Jiang is a born fool.

    So Jiang Tiansheng is not the murderer.

    This inference seems reasonable, but if this is the case, why is Jiang Tiansheng worried?  The only thing that might have worried him was that he didn't have a perfect alibi at two o'clock.  This also troubled Xia Xiang: all the best suspects had alibis at the time of the murder.

    Then, suddenly, the floodgates of inspiration opened, piercing the dark corners of his mind like the ray of a searchlight.  Oh my god!  If this is true, Jiang Tiansheng is definitely not a fool.  He is the smartest criminal a detective can ever encounter in his life.  Xia Xiang observed Jiang Tiansheng's self-righteous appearance.  is it possible?  Yes, it's possible, and if Chiaki hadn't shown up with his testimony, the plan might have been very successful.

    Start analyzing from this point and see what the result will be.  At two o'clock, Jiang Tiansheng murdered Link in Pingtie.  He had tied the mare somewhere long ago, and after leaving the restaurant at half-past one he went to the lane and secured the horse without a second's delay.  Then he must have made the horse run as hard as he could.  Suppose he ran four kilometers in twenty-five minutes.  So at two o'clock, he was still half a kilometer away from the flat iron. No, this wouldn't work.  Make time tighter.  Let him set off from Lao Qiao Trail at one thirty-two, and let him speed up the horse to nine kilometers per hour - that's about the time.  Let him walk to the rock within five minutes, and it will be 1:55.  Then what?  Drive the horse back?  Five minutes before Zhiqiu woke up, he let the horse run back along the beach and walked by himself, arriving at Pingtie at two o'clock.  He killed someone.  He found Zhiqiu coming and hiding in the crevices of the rocks.  Meanwhile, the little mare had gone home, or had reached a spot on the roadside and was running up, or¡ª

    There was no need to think about the horse anymore; it was running back to its own meadow and stream.  Time was tight and the whole thing seemed impossibly elaborate, but not as impossible as he had first thought.  Assuming that this is the case, what would have happened if Zhiqiu was not present at the time?  Within hours, the tide would cover the body.  If Jiang Tiansheng was the murderer, he would not want the body to go missing. He would want his mother to know about Link's death.  Yeah, but under normal circumstances the body would be back on the beach pretty quickly.  It was because of the strong southwest wind and the three gold bars that the body was never found.  Even this??, the body was eventually found.  Well, if Zhiqiu had not found the body at that time, they could not prove that the time of death was not earlier - for example, between eleven o'clock and one-thirty in the afternoon - during which time Jiang Tiansheng had already had many  Being there proved it.  The fact that the victim arrives at the level early makes the time of death appear to be earlier than it really is.  Why would you lure your victim to a deserted place at half past eleven and then wait two and a half hours to finish him off?  It's just to make others speculate that you killed him earlier.  Then, there is a pair of stubborn guys, Lao Bai and his son, who also mentioned in their stingy testimony that they saw Link "lying" on the flat iron at one forty-five.  That's part of the plan, too.  That's it, that's for sure.  The murder was intended to appear to have occurred in the morning, which is why Jiang Tiansheng was so persistent in his alibi that it was almost suspicious, and that was why he made the trip to the village.  "Always doubt those who have a solid alibi." Isn't this the first truth in the detective code?  This conclusive alibi is waiting for others to investigate carefully; it is waiting to pass any test, because how can it be wrong? This is a fact!  If it looks weird, that's because it's meant to look weird.  It is making a lot of noise, begging others to investigate it.  This alibi exists simply and accurately, diverting other people's attention from the critical two o'clock.  How successful this plan would have been if Zhiqiu had not discovered the body soaked in fresh blood.  But Zhiqiu was there, and the whole plan was destroyed by his testimony.  This must be a fatal blow. No wonder Jiang Tiansheng tried his best to discredit the embarrassing testimony of the time of death.  He knew better than anyone that death at two o'clock did not make the case a suicide, no matter what impression it made on others.  He's not stupid, he's just pretending to be stupid, and he's scary smart.

    Xia Xiang vaguely heard Jiang Tiansheng saying goodbye to him.  He let Jiang Tiansheng go, even a little eager for him to go.  He had to think about this.

    Zhiqiu¡¯s testimony tore the original plan to pieces.  What will Jiang Tiansheng do next?

    He might do nothing, which would be the safest approach.  He may be relying on the conclusion, believing that the police, Zhiqiu and Xia Xiang, and others will accept it.  But will he have the courage to do nothing?  He probably would, unless he knew there was something in the code file that would prove it wasn't suicide but murder.  If so, or if he loses his mind - then he will start planning his second line of defense, and what will it be?  A two o'clock alibi, no doubt - an alibi for the real practice of murder.

    What did he say about this time period?  Xia Xiang checked his notes, and quite a lot of new content had been added to them.  Jiang Tiansheng only vaguely mentioned a possible witness, a stranger who passed the checkpoint and asked him for the time.

    Of course, yes.  He had long since begun to doubt this witness.  This is a common spare character in detective novels: the person who asks the time.  Xia Xiang smiled.  Now he feels certain about it.  Jiang Tiansheng was prepared for all possibilities and carefully prepared this useful witness in case it was needed one day.  Now that morning's alibi could no longer keep him out of the situation, the two o'clock alibi had to be pushed to the forefront.  Only, this time, the proof won't be conclusive.  It may well be a very realistic proof, but it is undoubtedly false.  Then, the shadow of the prison began to approach, and Jiang Tiansheng was enveloped in darkness and dark clouds.

    "If everything is arranged, then, Jiang Tiansheng," Xia Xiang said to himself, "if I'm not wrong, your two o'clock witness will appear soon. On the other hand, if  If he really shows up, I¡¯ll know I¡¯m right.¡±

    This is imitating Jiang Tiansheng¡¯s logic.

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