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- The trading pool has become more crowded.
As the price of crude oil approaches US$15, many financial institutions that originally did not do crude oil futures, or rarely do crude oil futures, have also joined in. During this period, those spot traders who do hedging business, pure speculation merchants, and those who hold large Capital insurance companies and fund companies have all set their sights on the fluctuations in oil prices.
The more than a hundred traders who originally worked in the trading pool could no longer bear the orders of so many institutions and companies. Those institutions with excess seats had to send all traders who were qualified to enter the trading pool, such as Sumitomo Corporation. Hidetoshi Hirano is not the only trader. When a large client of the commercial bank requests to participate in crude oil trading, other traders have to put aside their work in the office and go into battle shirtless.
If you squeeze into a trading pool the size of a basketball court, more than 100 people will already be crowded with each other. When the number of people exceeds 200, it is simply a basketball court for idiots. Don¡¯t scream if your breasts are touched, and you won¡¯t care if others have their feet in their crotches. Yelling, the movements of the hands cannot be stopped. The only thing that needs to be careful is the elbows flying all over the field. If you are knocked unconscious, the opportunity will be delayed.
This is also the reason why there are always no female traders in futures exchanges. No matter how depressed the trading pool is, there will always be times when it comes to work, such as the coffee trading pool. When there are few people, there are only a dozen traders playing in it, but when there are many people Sometimes, there are hundreds of people, and it all depends on whether there are many arbitrage opportunities.
For many merchants currently participating in the transaction, crude oil of $15 is like picking up for free. Even the more cautious ones will give orders to traders to buy all the oil once the oil price falls below $15.
In their opinion, it is impossible for crude oil prices to return to the 1970s. That being the case. As long as you buy within 15 US dollars, you will always make a profit of a few cents or dozens of cents. Taking into account the leverage factor, a profit of 10% or even 20% is easily available.
British Global Petroleum Company's Kang Le's goal of joining the Pan-Asia Fund is only to obtain about 10% of profits. In the eyes of countless people, the situation of the London International Crude Oil Futures Exchange is simply a gift from God.
Of course, there are also some customers who will ask their traders to chase the rise and kill the fall. Follow in the footsteps of Pan Asia Fund. Take a small short position in the market.
However, compared to the risk of going long, the risk of shorting has been infinitely magnified in the eyes of people in the financial industry, as shown in the list of new financial institutions collected by Qi Xiao. There is a long list of long names, but not even one third of the short list.
Qi Xiao even reminded: "HSBC, SunTrust, Bank of Ireland, etc. on the right all invest on behalf of clients, probably at the request of clients. If their self-operated funds are involved, most likely they are on the left. In the extra column.¡±
¡°So, people in the financial world are not very optimistic about short selling.¡± Su Cheng commented while watching.
¡°Many of the financial institutions that are doing long now have very strong capital and can afford to wait until crude oil is delivered. Now we are at risk of being shorted.¡± While reminding Qi Xiao, he thought to himself: It¡¯s not just that we are not optimistic.
Su Cheng just smiled. Said: "It happens now and then. They now think that $15 is the floor price. $14.88 is cheap. In the morning, they still felt that $17.88 is a cheap price. In my opinion, the more people in the financial world, the more confused they are. The bottom price but these spot dealers may hold crude oil until delivery. Well, you can make a separate list for them."
"Okay." Qi Xiao agreed, and then asked worriedly: "Director Su, when will the new supply you mentioned appear?"
¡°Of course it¡¯s not possible today, and increasing production is not something that can be done in a day or two.¡±
"It's not a day or two" Qi Xiao finally understood why Su City used this as a follow-up method. Without the current profits, the other six crude oil producers probably would not have rashly increased their crude oil production capacity.
Qi Xiao felt like he was sitting on an accelerating Concorde. His eyes were gray and he trembled: "Dong Su, the current market trading volume has been several times greater than usual. The bad news can last until the closing." It¡¯s very rare. Once the market reverses, releasing bad news won¡¯t have much effect.¡±
"The market will not be reversed so easily. If the supply of crude oil increases, it will increase. Will it be possible for those financial institutions that are long to actually deliver crude oil? I have the risk of short squeeze, and they also have the risk of long. Crude oil is not gold. You can pile them up in your basement." Su Cheng's tone was calm, not joking.
He is indeed quite confident.
Because what he got was Azijiu, a super oil field ranked among the top five in the world.
Back then, after BP acquired Aqijiu, just announcing its reserves caused a lot of fluctuations in the crude oil market. Fortunately, the British had their own North Sea oil fields, and BP adopted a step-by-step construction plan.It did not cause a devastating blow to the crude oil market. After all, the Aqijiu Oilfield has a peak daily production of 1.3 million barrels and an annual production capacity of 400 million barrels, which is equivalent to the later production of the British North Sea Oil Field.
The North Sea oil field at that time had the reputation of solving the world's oil crisis. In order to save the British economy and the world economy, developers who were also British only spent three years in a harsh area with wind speeds of 100 knots and waves 36 meters high. , completed the task of doubling and doubling the production capacity of the North Sea oil field. In contrast, the long and slow development of the Aqijiu Oilfield for more than 10 years can only be said to be caused by the capitalist view of money.
Dahua Industrial has not yet estimated the complete reserves of Aqijiu. The 3 billion barrels are just the current exploration results. Similarly, compared with its peak production capacity, the current daily production capacity also has great room for expansion.
Unlike BP in the past, Dahua Industrial is now confident that it will expand the production of the Aqijiu Oilfield to 1.3 million barrels or more in a few years. With the current development speed of the world economy, Suzhou City is As a result, the oil glut in the 1990s is destined to become increasingly obvious.
By then, even OPEC will have to endure relatively low crude oil prices. According to a rough estimate by Dahua Industrial Strategy Department, crude oil prices will fall by as little as 50 cents and as much as $1. Because no oil organization can endure a long-term reduction in production capacity of 1.3 million barrels, which is already equivalent to the national production capacity of an ordinary oil-producing country.
In fact, the peak production capacity of the Aqijiu Oil Field itself accounts for more than 30% of Azerbaijan¡¯s national production capacity. Azerbaijan has been the world's top oil-producing country from the pre-Soviet period to the Caspian Sea oil-producing period.
In the future, the old Venezuelan man Chavez will only rely on the daily output of three to four million barrels per day, and whenever he picks up the "oil weapon". Naturally, it cannot be said that not a single barrel of oil will be produced. Under normal circumstances, his weapons are only three to five million barrels.
??Things that the President of the United States cannot decide, Exxon Mobil cannot necessarily decide, and Exxon Mobil cannot decide. It is not necessarily the case that Aqijiu Oilfield cannot decide.
Unless there are other production cuts, for crude oil, an extremely inelastic market, the situation of oversupply has already been achieved.
¡°If it were another ten years later, when China and other emerging market countries began to show exaggerated appetites, the increase in the Aqijiu oil field might be easily digested. But in 1994, when demand for crude oil was sluggish, Aqijiu's production capacity was definitely the piece of wood that broke the camel's back.
If it were not for the sluggish demand for crude oil, the OPEC Ministerial Meeting in the past two months would not have discussed reducing production capacity, and countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia would not have made any moves to increase production capacity for a long time.
Like a lot of bad news. It fell into an era when crude oil prices were hundreds of dollars. It can easily cause a drop of twenty or thirty dollars, but now, for Sioux City who has known about the crude oil futures speculation craze, a drop of three or four dollars is really nothing.
Qi Xiao¡¯s feeling is completely different. Looking at Su Cheng, he seemed to want to find the madness in his expression, and said: "Let's hold our positions for the night"
"In the next few days, let the market evolve on its own." Su Cheng interrupted him and gave the order directly. Whether it is him or a futures trader like Qi Xiao, if he wants to compete with the guys in the City of London who earn tens of millions of pounds in salary, they will lose. The cold reception the Pan-Asia Fund received when it first arrived is a reflection of reality.
¡°But in the crude oil market, Su Cheng has accumulated abundant capital, and coupled with his understanding of the future, he is not worried about his overweight position.
Qi Xiao returned to the office in frustration. Su Cheng also calmed down and continued the conference call. His partners probably had similar concerns.
The next morning.
Newspapers from all over the world have put the fluctuations in crude oil futures on the front page of finance. Compared with the evening news yesterday afternoon, the depth of newspaper news after a night of brewing has been significantly improved. The leading "Financial Times" even published a special report. Put it on the front page.
It took Su Cheng a whole breakfast to read this report signed "Delia". With his English proficiency, he can make conversation and negotiate just fine, but reading professional articles is too hard.
When he walked out of the hotel with the newspaper in hand, he saw a group of reporters staring at him with bright eyes, like a group of gamblers who had stayed up all night.
In a daze, these fourth-type creatures with sharp movements put the microphone to his mouth.
¡°Director Su, what are Pan Asia Fund going to do next?¡±
"Dr. Su, do you think crude oil futures will open higher today?"
"Chairman Su Cheng, please say a few words for the readers of the Daily Telegraph"??
"Dr. Su, the crude oil price in New York has begun to rebound. Do you regret your heavy short position in London crude oil futures"
Su Cheng caught the information among a bunch of questions, stopped and asked: "Has the price of crude oil in New York increased?"
During the London market break, crude oil futures in New York were still trading, and they had obviously digested the negative impact of OPEC.
The reporter who just mentioned the rebound in the price of crude oil in New York squeezed away the people around him with a bright face, held up the microphone and said: "Yes, the current price in New York is US$16.22, which is more than US$1 above the price of crude oil in London. What do you think will happen next?" How to develop?"
"Are the prices in London still fluctuating around $15?" Su Cheng asked rhetorically without answering.
The reporter looked at the record book and said: "The closing price of London North Sea Brent crude oil August contract was US$15.08 yesterday. The crude oil prices in New York and London are now seriously inverted. What do you think?"
The price of the North Sea Brent crude oil futures contract has always been higher than the price of the Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract. Now the latter is $1 higher than the former, which is naturally extremely abnormal.
But compared with the price inversion of crude oil futures, Sioux City seemed even more abnormal. He showed a weird and irrepressible smile and asked: "So, the price difference between London and New York has widened to 1 US dollar?"
"Yes." The reporter replied strangely, holding the microphone vigorously, waiting for Su Cheng's response.
Su Cheng closed his eyes and smacked his mouth.
Dahua Industrial invested US$200 million in contracts for difference between London and New York. At that time, the price difference between the two was less than 50 cents. Under a leverage of 300 to 500 times, if the price difference between the two expands by 10 cents, Dahua Industrial will earn a profit of almost US$450 million.
Now, the price difference between London and New York has widened to 1 US dollar. For this alone, he can get a net profit of 2.3 billion US dollars from the contract for difference.
This is the profit from Sioux City¡¯s independent investment, and there is no need to distribute any profit.
Judging from the current situation, the price difference between London and New York seems to continue to expand.
In 1994, such a large amount of money was more than enough to buy two central enterprises. It was also used to invest in other emerging industries, and I don¡¯t know how much it would make.
Su Cheng laughed and waved. With the help of bodyguards, he got rid of the reporters. After getting into the Rolls-Royce, laughter still seemed to come out.
A group of reporters looked around in astonishment, and someone asked softly: "In China, does this expression have any meaning?"
But Delia, who had interviewed Su Cheng, felt something and quietly returned to the newspaper office.
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