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- "Milton's quota has been used up. Do you want to continue investing?" Qi Xiao pushed open the door and entered. Since the futures war officially started, he has moved his base to the second floor of the exchange.
Su Cheng said without raising his eyelids: "Keep the current intensity. If the funds are not enough, increase the leverage."
¡°Increase leverage?¡±
"Up to 15 times."
Leverage is to use a small amount of money to leverage a large amount of funds, which is the most interesting margin design for futures trading. Futures traders only need to provide 10 or even less money to obtain full funds from banks or other financial institutions for purchasing futures.
Once the loss caused by the fluctuation of the futures contract exceeds the margin set by the trader, the bank will require additional funds. If the trader has insufficient funds, the bank will unceremoniously close the position and recover its own funds. In this case, the trader will No matter how much money you have to close the position, you won't get any money.
In futures exchanges, it is impossible to have no leverage at all, because the fluctuations of the futures contract itself are very small, and you cannot make money at all without amplification. Sioux City was tired to death, only to get the result that the oil price fell by 2 US dollars. Without leverage, Pan Asia Fund would only make 10 to 20 in this round, but with more than 10 times of leverage, their profit reached 100.
Except for insider trading operations like Suzhou City, it is rare for a normal futures contract to have a fluctuation of 3%. If there was no leverage, so-called financial people would have already changed careers.
" However, increasing leverage also means increasing risks. If the price of crude oil returns from US$16 to US$18, Dahua Industrial's margin will have to be increased.
Qi Xiao obviously does not think that 16 US dollars is the central point, and hesitantly said: "Today's trading time is almost over, slow down the pace a little, I estimate that a few billion US dollars will be enough"
"There are more than one battlefield, go ahead and give the order." The order given by Su Cheng was direct and clear.
Qi Xiao was now confirmed, his eyes lit up, and he asked: "Dr. Su, where else is the battlefield?"
¡°You come here in an hour, and if the opportunity is good, we¡¯ll do it.¡±
"Copy that." Qi Xiao ran out with the wind at his feet.
Oil prices have remained between $16 and $16.50 for a long time. As the market close approaches, most people believe that oil prices have temporarily stabilized.
Qi Xiao also took advantage of his free time to sneak into Su Cheng's small office and asked again: "Director Su, where is the second battlefield?"
"what you think?"
"New York Mercantile Exchange!" Qi Xiao's eyes lit up with excitement, and his tone was extremely affirmative.
After all, global crude oil futures are traded on the London International Petroleum Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price of crude oil in London fell, and it was impossible for New York to be unaffected. In fact, arbitrageurs doing West Texas Intermediate crude oil in New York made a lot of money today, and the price of WTI also approached US$16 from US$17.12.
Su Cheng smiled mysteriously and said, "I guessed half of it right."
"half?"
"We make the price difference." Su Cheng didn't play any more games.
The so-called price difference is the price difference between North Sea Brent light crude oil on the London Exchange and West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Exchange. Of course, it is said to be North Sea Brent light crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but as long as they meet the standards set by these two, they can be transported into the delivery warehouse.
But precisely because of this, the prices of the two have been affected differently. The London exchange's North Sea Brent light crude oil can be shipped to overseas markets, making its price more vulnerable to political factors and crude export disruptions. The delivery warehouse for West Texas Intermediate crude oil in Oklahoma, U.S. In the Cushing area, its prices are more susceptible to the economic and weather effects of the continental United States.
In other words, the crude oil price on the London Exchange is more international, while the crude oil price on the New York Exchange is more American.
If the weather in the United States becomes colder or the U.S. economy is strong, the price of crude oil on the New York Exchange will rise. At the same time, the price of crude oil on the London Exchange will not change much, which creates a price difference. .
For most of 1994, London North Sea Brent prices were higher than New York WTI prices. However, today's plunge in crude oil has made prices in New York higher than in London.
If the price difference between the two is correctly judged, the profit will not be small.
Qi Xiao kept nodding. There were very few opportunities to do futures in China. Before 2000, it was either done by a few tycoons who mistakenly entered the market, or simply by traders with national brands who could get involved in such high-end futures varieties as crude oil price spreads. Of course it couldn't be better.
"If you were asked to decide, what direction would you take?"?" Su Cheng looked at his watch and took the exam for Qi Xiao.
This is an important question. Qi Xiao's spirit suddenly became tense and he thought about it carefully.
He is already coordinating and contacting crude oil speculation. If he cannot give a correct answer, Su City may find another person in charge.
For Qi Xiao, who just fell in love with this position, he definitely didn't want this.
Crude oil price difference contracts, either betting that the price difference increases, or betting that the price difference decreases, there are only two answers, choose one at will, the chance of winning is 50, and the chance of failure is also 50. For people who cannot bear the loss, this is more difficult decision.
"The price difference will narrow If I were to decide, I would choose the direction of narrowing the price difference." Qi Xiao struggled to spit out the answer, and the next sentence was much smoother: "The price of crude oil in London has bottomed out, and the price in New York is based on arbitrage. Next, once the price in London rebounds, the price in New York will rebound at a faster speed. However, the price it rebounds will definitely not exceed the original price. In this way, the price difference between the two will still narrow. Mainly. In addition, we can control the rising speed of London oil prices to a certain extent, and choosing a narrower price difference is more beneficial to us in controlling risks."
"That's a good analysis." Su Cheng smiled a little.
Qi Xiao also smiled.
Then, Su Cheng smiled and said: "It's a pity that I was wrong."
"Puch" The fat boy, who was bored out of his mind, sprayed tea in the corner.
Qi Xiao was also very embarrassed.
Su Cheng waved his hand and said: "You are right to narrow the price difference, because the information you have is incomplete. I am afraid that other things will happen in the next day or two, so are you confident in contacting both sides of the Atlantic at the same time?"
"No problem." Qi Xiao was excited again, like a man who was awakened twice in one night, feeling proud and powerful. When the breath dissipated, he tried to ask: "What is the information you said that I don't have? Which ones do you mean?¡±
¡°OPEC.¡±
"OPEC?" Qi Xiao took two seconds to understand the word. After two full seconds, his entire face turned red, as if he had been awakened three times in one night.
For people in the oil circle, this deformed giant will always be the most high-end existence. An organization composed of 12 oil-producing countries cannot be overstated. Let alone the strength of other company alliances, if they form a long-term The first thing a joint organization faces is the antitrust laws of various countries. Back then, when European and American companies, led by Exxon and BP, wanted to negotiate with OPEC, they had to go to the U.S. Department of Justice to get a written document that would not lead them to be sued for monopoly before they could go on a plane. OPEC completely ignored Western laws. The organization's own freedom and resources are incomparable to ordinary company alliances.
Qi Meng had to look at Su Cheng¡¯s eyes and asked in a low voice: ¡°Do we have news about OPEC?¡±
"That's right."
¡°News that hasn¡¯t been released yet?¡±
"News that hasn't happened yet." Su Cheng glared at him, and Qi Xiao stopped being cautious.
In other words, Comrade Qi Xiao was shocked again.
What happened to the news that didn¡¯t happen? By the time he figured this out, he was already in the same state as four times a night - his eyes were dull, his body was weak, he was limp and slow
"Is it a high-level meeting of OPEC?" Qi Xiao was not just guessing. In the past month, this was the only OPEC meeting that could happen.
OPEC is an inter-state organization, which also means that their coordination is very complicated. Therefore, the number of meetings that OPEC can hold each year and the quality of meetings are limited. Generally, reservations for this year's meetings must be made last year.
??? Although the high-level meeting is very high-level, it has good flexibility. You can move it forward or postpone it if you want.
Su Cheng nodded slightly and said: "Your Excellency Aliyev was invited and should have arrived by now."
Azerbaijan is not a member of OPEC, but as an oil-producing country outside OPEC, its identity is equally important.
Qi Xiao no longer had the strength to be a man five times a night, so he stopped asking for specific details and said flatly: "I'll go back and prepare."
"Maintain the rhythm of short selling, don't be afraid."
"Understood." Qi Xiao was confident.
¡¡
As soon as Aliyev landed in Geneva, he was put into a Saudi limousine.
The purpose of OPEC¡¯s establishment is to fight against Western countries, and their main means is to coordinate the oil policies of oil-producing countries and agree on crude oil production and prices.
During the first and second oil crises, OPEC won by cutting production and imposing embargoes. When oil prices were low,? declared over, and the economic golden period of European and American countries also ended. Since then, OPEC¡¯s policies have become a bellwether for the oil market. Whether it is the OPEC ministerial meeting or the high-level meetings between OPEC member states, they all affect international oil prices and are, as usual, the protagonists in the news around the world.
It was also thanks to the efforts of OPEC that crude oil prices remained stable throughout the 1990s, bringing huge profits to oil-producing countries.
However, competition will always be the mainstream of the market.
To keep crude oil prices stable, oil-producing countries often produce less than their actual production capacity. The Middle East has been constructing transportation and refining all year round, but rarely uses advanced oil production methods, especially oil production equipment that increases the production speed. It has always been difficult to promote in the Middle East. Countries like Iran, from the 1970s to the 21st century In the 40 years since the 1910s, they have not updated their oil production equipment. This is certainly not because their oil production equipment is durable, but because they simply have no need to increase production and cannot afford newer and better equipment.
However, every oil-producing country is willing to limit production. For example, when Saddam Hussein was in power, Iraq was the most disobedient student in the OPEC class. Saddam used methods such as forced increase in production, stealing production, and even threats to withdraw. Especially after the end of the Iran-Iraq War, Saddam, who was so poor that he was crazy, didn't care what OPEC said and just blindly increased production.
Oil-producing countries other than OPEC have also caused OPEC troubles, especially those importing and exporting countries of crude oil, which have always been the focus of OPEC's efforts to win over.
The reason is very clear. Countries that are self-sufficient in crude oil or import crude oil, no matter how big their own production is, are buyers in the international market. Their crude oil will not appear in the international market, and even if they want to hoard it, they cannot do it. The United States In the end, people only built a 90-day crude oil reserve. The short-term impact on the market is not small, but the long-term impact is hard to say.
On the contrary, OPEC has to treat those net crude oil exporters that are similar in nature to OPEC countries but are not OPEC countries. For example, countries such as Mexico, Oman, and Brunei may not necessarily produce much more crude oil than countries like the United Kingdom, but since most of the crude oil they mine is exported, they have a greater say in the international market. Quite a few.
Out of considerations of protecting interests, when OPEC determines production over the years, it will contact these countries and set an approximate oil production target to prevent itself from lowering production but failing to reach the target, and ultimately giving all the advantages to others.
With the current political stability of various Soviet republics and the gradual recovery of crude oil production, countries such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have become the targets of OPEC's best efforts.
Aliyev also needs the diplomatic support of Middle Eastern countries at this time, but more importantly, he must strive for economic benefits for Azerbaijan.
Sioux City launched a crude oil offensive at such a time, and Aliyev was happy to see the results. This proved the importance of Caspian Sea oil from another aspect.
In fact, this is also true. The Caspian Sea oil circle is indeed the oil producing area second only to the Middle East oil circle, but it has not yet been recognized by the international oil community.
If the Aqijiu Oilfield is handed over to BP for development, due to its own global strategic considerations, it will not only slow down the development progress as it has in history. When British and American diplomacy requires it, BP can also adopt methods such as overhaul, full start-up, and half-start. It will become much more difficult for Aliyev to gain diplomatic benefits due to its impact on international oil prices.
As for now, when the Aqijiu Oil Field explodes with a daily production capacity of 150,000 barrels, OPEC countries cannot ignore it even if they want.
Because in order to achieve the desired oil price, the production reduction commitments made by OPEC countries are often only 1 million barrels of daily output. During the 2008 world economic crisis, OPEC only reduced production by 1.5 million barrels for the first time, and ultimately only achieved the goal of 75%.
Azerbaijan, which became independent from the former Soviet Union, suddenly entered the international crude oil market and opened 11 new oil fields. Needless to say, Aliyev's popularity goes without saying.
"It looks like the lion can really open its mouth." Aliyev enjoyed the attentive service of the Saudis and couldn't help but think of what Su Cheng said.
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