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Volume 1: Miracle on Qishan Chapter 176: The Asian Financial Crisis is Coming

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    For Yang Shaozong, he may have to temporarily stop academic research for a period of time. Although he estimates that he will still try to publish an academic paper of his own every year in the future, the quality of the subsequent papers will never be as good as "Personal Research".  "The Impact of Measurement Choices on Countries' Macroeconomics and International Trade" and "Asian Illiberal Economic Growth Factors and Their Scope".

    This is his limit, and his actual weight in it is at most 30%.

    Regardless of whether he can win the Nobel Prize in Economics, he seems to have achieved his first goal, because he understands one thing more and more - in fact, winning the Nobel Prize in Economics also depends on luck and qualifications. Usually,  You need to publish a series of high-quality papers continuously before you can enter the field of vision of others and get the chance to be nominated. There are about six to ten real nominations every year, and only three or four have the chance to compete for the crown.

    Among these three or four, whoever wins the prize has a high probability, because at this level of competition, the basic level and results are almost the same. What we need to see later is whose papers and achievements have a greater impact on the entire world economy, followed by  Let¡¯s see who is more profound in the realm of pure theory.

    From this perspective, for Chinese economists who focus on domestic economic research and serve the workers and peasants, it is normal not to win the Nobel Prize in Economics, and it is incredible to give you a chance to be nominated.

    Since the founding of New China, our party has called on intellectuals to serve the workers and peasants, that is, to serve the government, not the whole world.

    Chinese intellectuals have always been very smart. Before the reform and opening up, they had two goals: 1. To become a member of the ruling government; 2. To become an adviser to the ruling government.  After the reform and opening up, they have two new goals: 1. To become a member of the entrepreneurs in the sea; 2. To become a consultant to entrepreneurs.

    Yang Shaozong feels that the reason why he can get rid of these constraints and engage in some purely theoretical research with An Xin and Yang Xiaokai is for four reasons. 1. He was once a member of the government and is still, at least the chairman and party committee of a county-level city.  Member of the Standing Committee; 2. He is an advisor to the central government, at least currently the vice president of the Qizhou Economic Research Institute and an advisor to the State-owned Enterprise Reform Group of the State Council; 3. He is one of the entrepreneurs in Xiahai, and may be the biggest one;  4. He is a senior advisor to entrepreneurs. No matter what, since he is the CEO of an investment bank, he always provides various services to small entrepreneurs, especially financing and consulting services.

    Depend on.

    As a Chinese intellectual, he feels that his life is simply too profitable.

    Now is definitely not a happy time, because a happier moment is far from coming The Southeast Asian financial crisis is coming. As an economist, Yang Shaozong finally understands more things, that is, this financial crisis will ultimately only have two  Half of the beneficiaries are the United States, one is China, and the other half is India.

    From the scope of the regional economic competition discipline he studies, the Southeast Asian economy and the Chinese economy are basically opposite. If the former is strong, the latter will be weak, and if the former is weak, the latter will be strong. From the perspective of national competition, the weaker Southeast Asia is, the worse it will be.  Well, it's so weak that it can't even afford a destroyer, so it's basically self-deception if it wants to occupy a position in the South China Sea.

    Before the 1990s, why anti-Japanese movements and even massacres of Chinese often occurred in Southeast Asia? The bottom line is that China is weak, because you are weak and poor, so we look down on you Chinese.

    As China becomes stronger, the natives of Southeast Asia may still hate the Chinese very much, but at least they dare not continue to kill openly and openly. The situation of killing people at will as before will become history, unless China becomes weak again.

    Therefore, when analyzing with Hu Zuming how likely the financial crisis in Southeast Asia is to break out, Yang Shaozong said that if there is an 80% chance of breaking out, then we will make it a reality. A short-term increase in market value is nothing, as long as the Chinese economy continues  With rapid growth, their market will be ours sooner or later.

    Of course, Yang Shaozong and Hu Zuming also believe in another logic. If a crisis really breaks out, most of their financial industry opponents in Southeast Asia will suffer heavy losses. This is obviously their opportunity.

    In October 1996, the Zhongqi International Economic Research Center led by Hu Zuming, Qian Jiaying and others conducted a second round of economic data in Southeast Asia and finally determined that even if there was no crisis in the Southeast Asian economy, there was a risk of a hard landing.  It is also very high, especially in Thailand and Indonesia, but South Korea will also be among the first.

    very good.

    The first round of inspections began in March and large-scale preparations began. In October, the Zhongqi Department finally decided to get serious. They began to short-sell long-term contracts in Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah and South Korean won, with a one-year contract.  Mainly period.

    Although there are still bigThe appreciation of b is also said to be of great benefit to China. If the central bank is fooled and really raises the exchange rate, there will undoubtedly be a bubble in the RMB. Once the international financial community significantly shorts the RMB, the next Chinese financial crisis will come.  .

    Of course Yang Shaozong will not believe these lies. He knows that through a large amount of data extracted from the Thai branch, they can be sure that real estate worth at least 500 billion baht in Bangkok, Thailand, is unsaleable. The most worrying thing is Liang Baitao can buy it  I checked some information in the name of several banks in Thailand. According to his feedback, at least half of the loans in Thailand currently come from the real estate industry. If related loans such as cement and steel are included, this number may reach 70%.

    At this time, even Liang Baitao, the president of Hong Kong's Zhongqi International Investment Bank, who had always thought Thailand's economy was very good, suddenly woke up. Thailand's crisis was not ordinary, but very big.

    Although Hong Kong¡¯s data are basically the same, half of Hong Kong¡¯s basic market is actually red-chip. Hong Kong¡¯s foreign exchange reserves are enough to support the Hong Kong dollar, and Hong Kong itself has almost no foreign debt.

    The difference here is huge and cannot be compared.

    ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

    ¡°When Liang Baitao followed Yang Shaozong¡¯s instructions and used his senior connections in the banking industry in Thailand and Southeast Asia to sign risky loan contracts with several banks in Thailand before returning to Hong Kong, he could only sigh like this.

    He realized that Bangkok Bank and Thai Farmers Bank, which had lent tens of billions of baht to Zhongqi International Investment Bank, were basically doomed. Although he had some dealings with these Thai-Chinese businessmen, he was just a professional manager.  It is impossible to go against the decision of the head office.

    The so-called risk loan has no risk at all.

    I will borrow 20 billion baht from you and pay you back 20 billion baht in two years. In addition, I will pay you interest at a high loan interest rate of 15% per year. During these two years, you cannot withdraw the loan from me for any reason.  , if you are forced to terminate the contract, you will have to pay a large amount of liquidated damages, which is enough to confiscate your loan interest and most of the principal.

    Of course, I will definitely provide you with sufficient asset mortgage. If I cannot repay the loan by then, you can take away the 40% excess of the assets I pledged to you.

    This is a risk loan.

    The real risk of this loan is hard to come by - the Thai baht plummets and the bank itself falls into a massive debt crisis.

    Yang Shaozong converted the borrowed Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah, and Korean won into U.S. dollar bonds in the foreign exchange market, and then waited for the fishermen's profit. When your exchange rate plummeted, I only needed a fraction of the U.S. dollar bonds to repay the debt.

    In short, a very terrible thing is brewing.

    Yang Shaozong actually hopes that this crisis will be larger and more tragic than expected. Only in this way can he make profits. He does not just rely on short selling exchange rates to make money. He will also short sell some stock indexes, but from now on  Generally speaking, they have not caused much harm to Southeast Asian countries. They are just like other international investment banks. Since there is money to be made, I will make a profit to make up for my investment losses in these countries.

    The real profit point of China Flag International Investment Bank is to acquire its opponents when they are at their worst, use the profits gained from the exchange rate market to acquire them, dismantle their non-performing assets, help them resume operations, and at the same time obtain longer-term profits from them.  .

    No matter what, short selling and hedging are always zero-sum games. You can only make as much as others lose, and you also have to pay a large amount of brokerage and commission fees. Others' losses may be very large, but in the exchange rate market and hedging  In the market, there is only so much profit you can get. The more positions you have, once you win, you will win the most, and others will win relatively less.

    If you have too many positions that other hedge funds feel are not cost-effective, no one will do the hedging, so you can rush it. Anyway, you have to hedge it if you don¡¯t want to.

    Therefore, large hedge funds must not only calculate their opponents, but also their peers in their operations.

    Finally, I would like to summarize two points. First, it is very easy to make money directly during a crisis, but the amount will not be astonishing. Second, you cannot even take away other people¡¯s money-making opportunities and expect others to rush out at a loss.  To help you, you are not stupid, and others are not stupid either, so either give in to others, or hide behind others to plot against your opponent.  ro!  .
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