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Volume One: The Long-term Is Gold Chapter 398: The Profound Lessons from the 530 Stock Market Disaster (Part 2)

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    Next, Banban shared a reflection he wrote in 2007, which listed 10 lessons learned.  The content is as follows: "The stock market crash that started on May 30, 2007 has left us all with very painful lessons that we must keep in mind. These are the lessons of blood and tears that we have summed up together, and they are lessons piled up with RMB. Although this time  The unprecedented stock market crash has very complicated factors. For example, there have been many rumors of raising stamp duty. This time it was suddenly announced in the middle of the night, which caused great panic among funds. They believed that the bull market was about to peak, thus forming an extreme situation where funds stampeded and fled.  For example, the senior management underestimated the lethality of stamp tax, and some institutions maliciously shorted the market, and the rescue efforts were obviously insufficient, etc. However, from a technical perspective, failure to adhere to operational discipline is a very important reason for losses. Reflection  As follows: 1. Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, there must be iron operating disciplines. For example, before the 530 incident, a lot of profits were accumulated after a continuous surge, and the bottom chips also moved to high levels. At the same time, the K line was away from the 60-day line.  If it is too far, there is a technical callback requirement. At this time, you should reduce your position or even clear the market to avoid the 530 stock market crash. During the rebound after the sharp decline, the market weakened again, with the 5-day line crossing the 10-day line, and the yellow and white lines crossing the 10-day line.  The line crosses, especially when the 20-day moving average begins to move downward, and the chips continue to move to high levels, which indicates that a second bottom will be reached. At this time, you should resolutely leave the market. Don't think that it will be repaired quickly and return to the previous situation.  The ascending channel will be like this in the future. You should know that the first 99 times may have been fine, but a major adjustment, especially an extreme stock market crash, will be very miserable. Therefore, you can hold it for the long term and hold it for the long term.  But with short-term swing operations, you should leave the market and wait and see when the indicators get better. Don't be afraid of being short. Even if you are short, your principal will not be lost. At most, you will make less.  There are plenty of opportunities in the market, and the most important thing is to ensure the safety of principal. In terms of smaller band operations, once resonance occurs at 60 minutes, 30 minutes, and 15 minutes, and the indicators deteriorate, we must also reduce our positions appropriately. At the same time, we must pay more attention to smaller bands.  Because the larger levels such as the daily line evolved from 30 and 15 minutes, when the daily line trend turns bad, it often falls a lot, and it is easy to continue to be in a deep position because you are reluctant to cut the meat. 2. DonĄ¯t trade on the right side.  Do trades on the left side. Try not to counter pressure on the short-term and medium-term moving averages. If you have not yet formed a long position and there is no sign of stopping the decline, you would rather give up the 10-20% rebound profit at the bottom and wait for the K-line to reach five.  The daily and ten-day moving averages and moving averages are arranged in long positions before entering the market when the stock price really shows signs of stabilization. Do not risk trading on the left side and do not rely on the measures and intensity of the rescue measures, the statements of leaders, and the optimistic predictions of the media.  There are illusions in reports, and everything is subject to market trends. For example, in the past, there would be a strong rebound after the stock price fell to the limit of 1,000 shares for several consecutive days.  Once this extreme situation is encountered, it will be very miserable. 3. Stop loss and profit must be controlled well. Don't always remember how much principal you invested last year and just rely on the huge profits.  Instead, after each operation, the new profit plus the original principal is calculated as the new principal.  We must follow the moving average take-profit and proportional take-profit methods to achieve the unity of knowledge and practice, and theory cannot be separated from practice.  When the market and individual stocks have a greater risk of falling, regardless of profit or loss, you must stop profit and exit.  It is better to be short-term and stop losses than to take chances.  Because even if you lose money, you will only lose the expected theoretical income, and your principal will not suffer any loss.  When the point is high, we must avoid greed and dare to take short positions.  4. Think independently and make decisions independently. DonĄ¯t follow blindly and have your own judgment.  If your judgment is well-founded, don't care what others in the group say or laugh at, and stick to your choice.  The content of discussions between me and other group members may not necessarily be correct, and sometimes conflict with each other, so we must develop the habit of making our own judgments and decisions.  5. Pay close attention to the changes in the chip column. Once the chip column of the market and individual stocks is concentrated toward the top, be careful.  6. If the downward gap in the market cannot be filled in three trading days (including the current day), you must be very careful, because it may continue to open a second gap and start a major adjustment.  7. DonĄ¯t believe too much in the words of the media, but you must pay attention to the risk warnings and tightening capital actions of the regulatory authorities. Although the previous warnings may not necessarily cause the market to fall immediately, after repeated emphasis, especially once it substantially involves the collection of funds.  Tighten up, there will be a big risk one day, don't be paralyzed.  Because the will of the country cannot be resisted by institutions and retail investors.  8. Use your spare money to trade stocks, which will not affect your life even if you lose it all. DonĄ¯t borrow money to trade stocks. Overcome the gamblerĄ¯s mentality. DonĄ¯t only see opportunities and ignore risks.  Control your positions and set aside flexible funds.  You should be particularly cautious when the index is full when the index is at a high level. If you do not clear your position during an obvious decline, you should at least reduce your position to avoid liquidation and loss of principal and strategy.?strength.  9. Always maintain risk awareness.  We must all remember this lesson in the future.  Big mistakes can never be made again.  Can't afford to be wrong.  The capital market is too cruel. Even if you are right 99 times and are wrong once, it will be fatal.  Don't be complacent. Once you are dazzled by victory, danger will creep in.  10. Nine out of ten stocks will lead to losses. Only a handful will win in the long term. You must overcome greed and fear. Especially when you have huge profits, you must be willing to give part of the profits and principal to your wife. First, ensure that your family life is comfortable and you have no worries.  , don't become rich on paper and become a fleeting smoke.  Use part of the profits to continue gambling, and your mentality will be better.  Finally, no matter how much damage you have suffered in this stock market crash, donĄ¯t be discouraged. God is here as long as you are there.  There are still many opportunities and opportunities in life. If you do your homework and improve your technical and analytical skills, you can start over and create greater glory again.  I am not sure if the above summary is correct, please correct me.  Finally, I wish everyone good health and successful investment.  "  After reading this article, Ding Xu's eyes lit up, as if he had found a treasure, and he praised: "It's really well written, and that's all the mistakes that can be made in the market.  " "Don't worry.  This is only half of it, there is more to come.  Banban laughed, "After a week, I reflected again and added a few more!"  " "Where is it? Come out and have a look.  "Ding Xu was overjoyed and asked quickly. So the board posted another document. "Additional content on June 12, 2007: Today, I have further reflected on the 530 stock market crash. The new nine articles,  For your reference.  1. DonĄ¯t have any illusions!  DonĄ¯t have too high expectations for the efficiency of the national teamĄ¯s rescue of the market. Rescue of the market means that the market is not in good condition, and it often takes a long time to rescue the market.  Don't wait for others to save you, save yourself first.  The best way to protect yourself is to leave the market immediately at the beginning of the decline. If you can't escape the first lower limit, you have to escape the second lower limit immediately. Don't imagine that profits can come back immediately on the rebound.  In the past, it was often the bear market that rescued the market.  Therefore, we had high expectations for the rescue of this bull market. As a result, although the senior management also felt that the fall had gone too far, their attitude began to be mild and they expressed their opinions one after another.  It is a significant change in attitude to believe that falling too quickly is also unhealthy.  As a result, these positive results were still no match for the market collapse.  Therefore, even if you are trying to save the market in a bull market, you must clear and reduce your positions and reduce your weight on highs.  Wait until the market bottom appears on its own and the market truly stabilizes before entering the market.  Don't easily believe the statements of relevant leaders, only your own judgment.  Your preference is your trap.  When you look forward to the rescue effect, you first dig a trap made of fantasy for yourself.  ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????The people who were sheared must be retail investors. This stock market crash eliminated a large number of middle classes and completed the transfer of wealth.  This is the time to wake up from the dream. From now on, I only believe in myself.  A major mistake can be forgiven once, but don't make it a second time, otherwise you will pay high tuition fees in vain.  2. Live in the moment!  DonĄ¯t predict the long-term trend too much and set an index target, for example, it will rise to 8,000 points or even 10,000 points.  Because even if the prediction can be realized in the end, if you keep emphasizing it, you will form a deep-rooted cognition, and it is easy to ignore the risk of shock adjustment during the period. When encountering an extreme stock market crash, you will be very passive, and even lose your principal and bullets, unable to see the future.  The day when the 10,000-point breakthrough occurred.  Therefore, from now on, we must live in the present, live in the current trend, and fight every band as a real battle.  Accumulate small wins into big wins.  Strategically, we must see the long-term trend, and tactically, we must pay attention to every adjustment and try to avoid it.  3. Free debate!  If you have different opinions on the market and individual stocks, everyone should debate them in a timely manner and be diligent in thinking and debating.  Don't let your butt determine your head. If you are in a full position, you will like to listen to bullish comments. If you are in a short position, you will like to listen to bearish comments. You should trade stocks without emotion, and your transactions should be as cold as ice!  Only by doing this can you become a rational investor and win in the long run.  Different opinions must be allowed and encouraged in the group, and one must not think that Zhuang Tuo is the one who is pessimistic. This will only make people paralyzed and blindly optimistic.  Don't make it a one-word argument and create a dead-long or dead-short atmosphere.  The truth becomes clearer with more debate, and the collision of different viewpoints is very beneficial.  Especially old investors who have experienced bull markets and bear markets should share more of their experiences and donĄ¯t be afraid of objections from friends in the group, just accumulate merit points.  I will not cater to everyone in the future. Whenever there are risks and opportunities, I will try my best to remind you and debate with everyone.  But please remember that other peopleĄ¯s opinions are always just a reference. You must think independently and make decisions independently, because you are responsible for your own profits and losses. DonĄ¯t place all your hopes on others, especially those you think are experts. Nothing in this world is forever.  Experts and stock gods who make mistakes, only the market itself will not make mistakes, and the market is always right.  4. DonĄ¯t be paralyzed!    This market is very cruel. Never forget that the stock market is like a battlefield. We are facing the smartest minds and the cruelest means. Always be vigilant and don't be careless.  After continuous sharp declines and another sharp decline, the market rescue benefits continued to be introduced, but the final rescue effect was very slow, making those who wanted to leave the market want to wait and see again, and those who were out of the market wanted to buy the bottom. In the end, retail investors generally suffered heavy losses, and the result of the cleanup of capital allocation was that, in the end,  Many financiers have also been eliminated.  Therefore, once you become paralyzed and ignore the risks, you will immediately learn a heavy lesson.  5. Overcome fear!  DonĄ¯t fall into the darkness before dawn.  In this 530 incident, more than half of the stocks fell to their limit four times in a row, losing nearly half of their value. It is a very extreme situation in both bull and bear markets. It is obviously the bottom area, but there are still some people who fell to the limit when the fifth limit was just opened.  Cut the meat, and the price will rise sharply on the same day.  When you are desperate, the market bottom often comes out.  If you want to leave, leave early. If you hold on until the end but leave when the rebound comes due to despair, it will cause a double blow to your mentality.  6. Overcome greed!  DonĄ¯t only see opportunities but not risks, and risk filling your position at a high position.  When the position is low, the position can be full, but when the position is high, especially in the obvious downward channel, the position must be reduced, otherwise you will not be able to bear the continuous lower limit and will not be able to bear the dawn.  7. Dare to correct mistakes!  Stock trading is about seven points of mentality and three points of technology.  Many people know the technical model of stop loss and take profit, but they have a bad mentality and cannot integrate knowledge and action.  For example, after a decline, you always want to let the profit return to the highest point before leaving the market, and fail to implement the stop-loss and take-profit rules.  As everyone knows, first it covers a finger, then the wrist, then the entire arm, and then the entire body without damage.  The moment you wake up from the dream, you realize how much you paid.  Therefore, if you find that you are wrong and deviate from the actual trend of the market, you must dare to correct your mistakes and stop losses and profits.  You must have a good mentality, be decisive in correcting mistakes, and preserve the remaining fruits of victory in a timely manner to avoid expanding losses.  8. Just be slick!  DonĄ¯t be a dead long, donĄ¯t be a dead short, just be a slippery one.  When the moving average is arranged in a long position and the market is rising unilaterally, you can patiently hold shares and let profits run, and just add some band operations.  When the moving average is arranged in a short position and the market is in a unilateral decline, you must hold the currency patiently.  Because not losing is a win, short positions are also an operation. When prices fall, short positions actually reduce your future holding costs.  When the market is in shock, you can sell high and buy low to make more profits.  At different stages, you need to have different stock and currency holding strategies, adapt to changes, and be a flexible person who can adapt to changes.  9. DonĄ¯t be confused!  Although we have experienced a stock market crash, the investment philosophy that long-term is gold has not become outdated. It just needs to be combined with long-term holding and short-term trading, and swing operations are enough, and the position and mentality cannot be messed up.  Extreme stock market crashes like this are, after all, very rare. The market will return to normal in the future, but the higher the level, the more shocks there will be.  When holding long-term and short-term (long-term holding plan plus short-term band operations), the K-line chart of which level is used to buy is the same as the K-line chart of which level is used to sell.  There can be no chaos.  For example, if you find the buying point on the 15-minute K-line chart and intervene, when you leave the market in the future, you can find the selling point on the 15-minute K-line chart, leave the market, and wait patiently for the next entry opportunity. Do not blindly exchange stocks.  , donĄ¯t lose your own profit plan, otherwise it will only become more chaotic.  Only by clarifying your thoughts and plans can you make stable profits and quickly recover your blood.  "(To be continued.)
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