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Volume One: The Long-term Is Gold Chapter 390: The Weekly Center Determines Bull and Bear

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    "That's true, but there are often no signs when a bear market comes. Just like at 6124, it suddenly appeared. "How can there be no signs?  For example, if you look at the chip distribution column of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, you can see that the bottom chips have moved up to the top, and some heavyweight stocks called elephants are dancing crazily, covering the retreat of other sectors.  For example, the official media pointed out that the stock market bubble was huge and continued to issue new stocks in the market.  For example, the real economy becomes better and attracts more funds into the real economy.  "Banban replied, "Another example is the technical breakdown, especially the weekly and monthly breakdown.  If it falls below the middle track of the weekly Bollinger Band and then falls below the middle track again after pulling back, there is a high probability that a bear market is coming.  In addition, we should pay close attention to whether the weekly center has been broken. Once it is broken, it is very likely that a bear market is coming. Regardless of profit or loss, we should immediately clear our positions and leave the market to avoid the risk of continuous sharp declines at the beginning of a bear market.  You know, the bull market in 2007 was based on four central points that determined whether the market was bullish or bearish.  " "Which four centers?  "Bao Erdan asked. "I'm referring to the weekly center, which is what Zen said. In the process of the bull market rising, once there is an adjustment at the weekly level, it is based on 'down up and down'  The mode is adjusted, and at the same time, in the process of going down and up, there is a completely overlapping interval, which is the center.  For example, after rising from 1000 points to 2000 points, then falling to 1700 points, then rising to 1950 points, then falling to 1650 points, and finally rising to 3000 points, then 1700-1950 points are the weekly center.  Looking at the weekly K-line chart of the Shanghai Composite Index since the bull market in 2005, there are four obvious weekly centers.  " Banban sent up a weekly central chart, and then explained. "One of the signs to judge whether the bull market has turned bearish.  It is after the weekly center is broken through.  It cannot be broken.  For example, among the four weekly centers since 2005, the first three centers are basically the same. That is, after the first wave of decline, the second wave of rebound basically returns to near the high point.  The third wave of decline is not too far from the low of the first wave. Then it completes the construction of the weekly center and starts to move upward, starting a new wave of main rise.  That is to say.  After the weekly center is established, the stock index moves upward away from this center.  The only exception is the fourth center, because after it rose to 6124 points, there was a lower and upper center, but the last negative line fell below this center, and it became farther and farther away.  Finally, there was a rebound in early 2008, and when it hit the center of the box bottom, it went downward again, thus creating the big bear market of 2008.  " "Well, it does make sense.  But is this judgment really accurate?  "Ding Xu nodded and asked further. "A perimeter center is the position where the main force conducts aerial refueling.  It is normal to go upwards after that.  If it falls below, it means that the main force has given up on the position it has worked so hard to build. The bulls have been defeated and are scrambling to escape, causing many to kill. It is not surprising that the bear market is coming.  Of course, technical indicators can also be viewed in conjunction with indicators such as chip distribution. For example, when the last weekly center was constructed, the bottom chips basically moved to the top, indicating that the main force began to ship.  In addition, the bull market in 2007 never fell below the weekly middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Later, it peaked and fell below. When it rebounded to this position again, it was unable to increase its volume and fell below the weekly Bollinger Bands again.  In the middle track, this is the last chance to escape.  " Banban smiled and said, "Of course, there are many signs that can be used to judge the bull market top, such as whether the amount of funds can keep up and whether the policy has changed.  In the bull market of 2007, because the country was worried about the bubble being too big, it continued to issue large-cap stocks and stopped approving new public funds. The flow of funds entering the market was broken, and the monthly moving average line crossed.  Funds and stock prices are like the relationship between water and fish. When the water stops flowing and large-cap stocks continue to be listed on the market, it will naturally become difficult to raise fish. The foresighted funds will quickly withdraw. After following the trend and killing many, the bear market will come.  .  Also, a big bull market is generally a group effect, which will eliminate absolute value depressions such as low-price stocks and low-price-earning stocks. When the market value depression basically no longer exists, the average price-earnings ratio is high, and the asset securitization rate is also high, then we will see the  top.  Finally, the bull market will generally perish in an atmosphere of madness and joy. If it is still full of bearish voices, full of controversy and doubt, then it will generally not reach the top.  What's more, the growth rate of the market also needs to be considered. It rose more than five times in 2007. Big funds made huge profits and had enough room to ship.  The current increase is still very small, only 20%, and there is no need to consider peaking.  Unless this is not a small bull market, but just a small rally, it will end suddenly.  " "Listening to your words is better than ten years of reading."  Been taught a lesson!  "After hearing these words, Ding Xu said with emotion, "Brother, I understand. Before you want to be long-term, you must judge that this is a bull market that is coming, and have a rough prediction of the peak of the bull market, and then stick to it.  The long term is gold.  I just want to know what your long-term model is like. Can you tell me more specifically?  " "This is a long story.  Well, here I have a chat record I had in my group when I was trying to escape the top in September 2007. I will post it directly for your reference.  Banban smiled and said, "I was playing basketball yesterday and dropped my hand."Now, typing is not convenient, please allow me to be lazy.  "    "Thank you so much.  "Ding Xu said quickly. After more than ten minutes, Banban posted a large chat record. Basically, only Banban's own words were retained, and the words of other group members were deleted. This monologue-style chat record  , which made Ding Xu very emotional and inspired. The time was September 25, 2007, and the content was as follows - "Banban: Yesterday, I attended a class at the Shanghai Sales Department of Sun Securities, called 2007.  At the mid-year strategy report meeting, the teacher who gave the lecture saw the 10,000-point mark and believed that there would be a golden ten-year bull market, but I didn¡¯t think so. I thought he was too optimistic.  And when everyone is so optimistic, real big risks often come. After all, bull markets always end in joy. The increase in stamp duty in the past few months has fully demonstrated the official attitude. Now it has increased by a thousand.  The more you do, the more likely a collapse is.  Of course, this is not the focus of what I want to say today.  During the course of the lecture, the lecturer asked us how many companies could achieve a return rate that has more than doubled since the bull market in 2005.  After a moment of silence, I raised my hand, another middle-aged man raised his hand, and everyone else basically looked ashamed and regretful.  There are hundreds of retail investors, but only two people have more than doubled.  Of course, some people may not be willing to raise their hands, but from the subsequent interactions, I can see that most retail investors are not anxious about outperforming the market. That is real anxiety.  After all, the market has more than quadrupled from 998 points. These people have significantly underperformed the market. There are even many retail investors who have lost money. They are all anxious. I sigh and feel sad for them.  Because I can foresee that when the bull market ends, they will definitely be reluctant to leave the market, and will continue to stay in the stock market and suffer losses in the end.  I just read everyone¡¯s discussion, and many people don¡¯t believe what I said.  So in this picture, do you believe the statistical data of a brokerage system?  Since 2005, 52% of the clients of this brokerage have had a return rate of less than 75%, which has not even doubled!  The market has more than quadrupled. Even if you close your eyes and pick a random stock, you will still get more than this profit!  Brokerage analysts believe that the main reason is that retail investors like to chase the rise and kill the fall, and are unwilling to cover stocks for the medium and long term.  And there have been several shocks, such as the May 30 tragedy. When it fell by 40%, it cut off the profits. When it rose by 10%, it chased the high again, and 50% of the profits were wiped out in one go.  If this happens twice, 100% of the profits will be lost.  If a retail investor makes an average of twice as much profit in a year, but loses a lot of profits when encountering such a big shock and a washout, the last statistics show that the profit is only less than 75% in two years. It is not incomprehensible. We don¡¯t want to take advantage of our group.  Compare the average rate of return with that of outside retail investors.  Those who can operate according to my stock trading theory and insist that the long-term is golden can easily defeat most retail investors.  There is nothing else, just two words, die.  There are four more words, the long term is golden!  ¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­¡­Dividing line¡­¡­¡­¡­ (Congratulations to Miracle Group¡¯s ¡°8 o¡¯clock online¡± and ¡°Leng Yu¡±, ¡°Niu Run Da Zi Zi¡± and ¡°Xi Xi¡± for becoming lovers, work hard to make money,  Buy a house, buy a car, get a certificate and have a baby. I wish "8 Leng" and "Rhinoceros" a lot of money, good luck, and a long life. I went back to my hometown during the Dragon Boat Festival. I didn't write a word in those days, so I'm sorry for the update.  Chapter 1 is to make up for what was left in the previous two days. These chapters are intended to write about my understanding of some of the characteristics of the bull market¡¯s tops and bottoms. They are for your reference only. Regarding the adjustments during the rise of the bull market, I just want to say that there will be changes after the storm.  There is a rainbow, don¡¯t fall into the darkness before dawn) (To be continued, please search Piaotian Literature, the novel will be better and updated faster!
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